------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      name:  <unnamed>
       log:  /Users/hanaattia/Dropbox/Mac (2)/Desktop/PaperII_termination/FPA/Empirics/Replication/FPA_replication.log
  log type:  text
 opened on:   1 Apr 2025, 23:06:31

. use "1. Data_Replication.dta"
(Written by R.              )

. 
. *Creating congressional oversight variable
. gen cong_oversight = 0

. replace cong_oversight = 1 if tertype == 4
(1868 real changes made)

. replace cong_oversight = 1 if tertype == 5
(1034 real changes made)

. 
. *Droping congressional sanctions cases and keeping congressional oversight and executive sanctions cases
. drop if tertype == 1 
(116 observations deleted)

. drop if tertype == 2
(356 observations deleted)

. 
. *Droping cases that ended in stalemate
. drop if drop_stalemate == 1
(395 observations deleted)

. 
. *Creating variable that denotes whether the country is targeted by multiple US sanctions regimes
. sort cowyearmonth

. quietly by cowyearmonth: gen dup = cond(_N==1,0,_n)

. gen multiple = 0

. replace multiple = 1 if dup > 0
(3351 real changes made)

. 
. *Creating variable that denotes whether the country has received above average NYT news coverage
. gen log_NYT_above_mean = 0

. replace log_NYT_above_mean = 1 if log_NYT_monthly_t_1 > 2.602981
(5660 real changes made)

. 
. 
. generate termination_targetco = 0

. replace  termination_targetco = 1 if status == 1
(88 real changes made)

. 
. generate termination_senderca = 0

. replace  termination_senderca = 1 if status == 2
(37 real changes made)

. 
. *********************************************Regression analysis********************************************* 
. **Table 1: Looking into the termination of US sanctions
. set more off 

. stset duration_month, id(idnum) failure(termination_executive)

                id:  idnum
     failure event:  termination_executive != 0 & termination_executive < .
obs. time interval:  (duration_month[_n-1], duration_month]
 exit on or before:  failure

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  total observations
        0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  observations remaining, representing
      209  subjects
      125  failures in single-failure-per-subject data
     9883  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                              at risk from t =         0
                                   earliest observed entry t =         0
                                        last observed exit t =       347

. stcox pres_party_power_cong sender_approval_ratings cong_oversight sender_unemployment_perc_lagged  mean_strength_bipartisanship sendersalience sender_leadershipchange_year log_NYT_above_mean target_log_gdppercap_lagged  target_polyarchy_t_1 target_l
> eadershipchng_lggd_lst6 idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged log_trade_lagged, efron nohr vce(cluster target)

         failure _d:  termination_executive
   analysis time _t:  duration_month
                 id:  idnum

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -529.07056
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -505.75919
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -503.81852
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -503.80188
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -503.80187
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -503.80187

Cox regression -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          203                Number of obs   =      9608
No. of failures      =          120
Time at risk         =         9608
                                                   Wald chi2(13)   =     68.30
Log pseudolikelihood =   -503.80187                Prob > chi2     =    0.0000

                                                   (Std. Err. adjusted for 98 clusters in target)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |               Robust
                             _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          pres_party_power_cong |   .0271591   .0104895     2.59   0.010     .0066001     .047718
        sender_approval_ratings |   .8222489   1.386789     0.59   0.553    -1.895808    3.540305
                 cong_oversight |  -.9331813   .2721754    -3.43   0.001    -1.466635   -.3997274
sender_unemployment_perc_lagged |  -.0390965   .0599801    -0.65   0.515    -.1566554    .0784624
   mean_strength_bipartisanship |  -.5115277   1.230584    -0.42   0.678    -2.923429    1.900374
                 sendersalience |   .0207822    .294806     0.07   0.944    -.5570269    .5985912
   sender_leadershipchange_year |  -.4411786   .2989224    -1.48   0.140    -1.027056    .1446984
             log_NYT_above_mean |  -.1282328   .2051684    -0.63   0.532    -.5303555      .27389
    target_log_gdppercap_lagged |  -.3394136   .0973098    -3.49   0.000    -.5301373   -.1486899
           target_polyarchy_t_1 |   .4091718   .5203209     0.79   0.432    -.6106384    1.428982
target_leadershipchng_lggd_lst6 |   .8421424   .2918927     2.89   0.004     .2700431    1.414242
     idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged |   .3823704   .1538166     2.49   0.013     .0808954    .6838455
               log_trade_lagged |   .1267166   .0454624     2.79   0.005     .0376119    .2158213
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *Look at partial acquiesence
. stset duration_month, id(idnum) failure(status == 1)

                id:  idnum
     failure event:  status == 1
obs. time interval:  (duration_month[_n-1], duration_month]
 exit on or before:  failure

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  total observations
        0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  observations remaining, representing
      209  subjects
       88  failures in single-failure-per-subject data
     9883  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                              at risk from t =         0
                                   earliest observed entry t =         0
                                        last observed exit t =       347

. stcox pres_party_power_cong sender_approval_ratings cong_oversight sender_unemployment_perc_lagged  mean_strength_bipartisanship sendersalience sender_leadershipchange_year log_NYT_above_mean target_log_gdppercap_lagged  target_polyarchy_t_1 target_l
> eadershipchng_lggd_lst6 idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged log_trade_lagged, efron nohr vce(cluster target)

         failure _d:  status == 1
   analysis time _t:  duration_month
                 id:  idnum

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -375.48992
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -356.84492
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood =  -355.8668
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -355.86108
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -355.86108
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -355.86108

Cox regression -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          203                Number of obs   =      9608
No. of failures      =           85
Time at risk         =         9608
                                                   Wald chi2(13)   =     68.61
Log pseudolikelihood =   -355.86108                Prob > chi2     =    0.0000

                                                   (Std. Err. adjusted for 98 clusters in target)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |               Robust
                             _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          pres_party_power_cong |   .0209232   .0118731     1.76   0.078    -.0023476     .044194
        sender_approval_ratings |  -.1960651   1.637722    -0.12   0.905    -3.405941    3.013811
                 cong_oversight |  -.7640249   .3215691    -2.38   0.018    -1.394289   -.1337609
sender_unemployment_perc_lagged |   .0455388   .0677376     0.67   0.501    -.0872245    .1783021
   mean_strength_bipartisanship |   1.205634   1.271039     0.95   0.343    -1.285558    3.696825
                 sendersalience |   .1184443   .3581108     0.33   0.741      -.58344    .8203286
   sender_leadershipchange_year |  -.1765692   .3344027    -0.53   0.597    -.8319864    .4788481
             log_NYT_above_mean |  -.5026613   .2586267    -1.94   0.052     -1.00956    .0042377
    target_log_gdppercap_lagged |  -.3937779   .1071686    -3.67   0.000    -.6038244   -.1837314
           target_polyarchy_t_1 |  -.9183695   .5842184    -1.57   0.116    -2.063416    .2266775
target_leadershipchng_lggd_lst6 |   .8200435   .3654943     2.24   0.025     .1036879    1.536399
     idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged |   .5600836   .1550592     3.61   0.000     .2561731     .863994
               log_trade_lagged |   .1853103   .0565353     3.28   0.001      .074503    .2961175
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *calculating the change in the hazard of termination after target acquiesence if case is a congressional oversight case
. disp exp(-0.7640249) 
.4657879

. disp (1-0.4657879)*100 
53.42121

. 
. *Look at sender capitulation
. stset duration_month, id(idnum) failure(status == 2)

                id:  idnum
     failure event:  status == 2
obs. time interval:  (duration_month[_n-1], duration_month]
 exit on or before:  failure

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  total observations
        0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  observations remaining, representing
      209  subjects
       37  failures in single-failure-per-subject data
     9883  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                              at risk from t =         0
                                   earliest observed entry t =         0
                                        last observed exit t =       347

. stcox pres_party_power_cong sender_approval_ratings cong_oversight sender_unemployment_perc_lagged  mean_strength_bipartisanship sendersalience sender_leadershipchange_year log_NYT_above_mean target_log_gdppercap_lagged target_polyarchy_t_1 target_le
> adershipchng_lggd_lst6 idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged log_trade_lagged, efron nohr vce(cluster target)

         failure _d:  status == 2
   analysis time _t:  duration_month
                 id:  idnum

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -154.05587
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood =  -133.3749
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -130.95615
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -130.92734
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -130.92732
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -130.92732

Cox regression -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          203                Number of obs   =      9608
No. of failures      =           35
Time at risk         =         9608
                                                   Wald chi2(13)   =     42.32
Log pseudolikelihood =   -130.92732                Prob > chi2     =    0.0001

                                                   (Std. Err. adjusted for 98 clusters in target)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |               Robust
                             _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          pres_party_power_cong |   .0459305   .0240235     1.91   0.056    -.0011548    .0930158
        sender_approval_ratings |   6.045165   2.839938     2.13   0.033     .4789887    11.61134
                 cong_oversight |  -1.265092   .5998291    -2.11   0.035    -2.440736   -.0894489
sender_unemployment_perc_lagged |  -.2964515   .1544148    -1.92   0.055    -.5990988    .0061959
   mean_strength_bipartisanship |  -6.108244   2.436445    -2.51   0.012    -10.88359   -1.332899
                 sendersalience |  -.2616112   .5472148    -0.48   0.633    -1.334132    .8109101
   sender_leadershipchange_year |  -1.530267   .6544234    -2.34   0.019    -2.812913   -.2476204
             log_NYT_above_mean |   1.010549   .4520759     2.24   0.025     .1244967    1.896602
    target_log_gdppercap_lagged |  -.2362028   .1915747    -1.23   0.218    -.6116823    .1392766
           target_polyarchy_t_1 |   3.567151   1.054384     3.38   0.001     1.500597    5.633706
target_leadershipchng_lggd_lst6 |   .6777311   .4719288     1.44   0.151    -.2472323    1.602694
     idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged |  -.0625691   .3251408    -0.19   0.847    -.6998335    .5746952
               log_trade_lagged |  -.0247627   .0850666    -0.29   0.771    -.1914901    .1419646
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *calculating the change in the hazard of termination by capitulation if case is a congressional oversight case
. disp exp(-1.265092) 
.28221333

. disp (1-0.28221333)*100
71.778667

. 
. *Figure 2: Estimated survivor function using different values for the president's party power
. stcurve, survival ///
>     at1(pres_party_power_cong=-1.128211) at2(pres_party_power_cong=9.107339) ///
>     lcolor(black black) lpattern(dash solid) ///
>     legend(order(1 "Presidential party power (mean)" 2 "Presidential party power (mean + sd)") size(vsmall)) ///
>     graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ///
>     xtitle("Sanctions duration") ///
>     title("")

. 
. 
. *Figure 3: Estimated survivor function using different values for the president's approval ratings
. stcurve, survival ///
>     at1(sender_approval_ratings=.4791477) at2(sender_approval_ratings=.5803203) ///
>     lcolor(black black) lpattern(dash solid) ///
>     legend(order(1 "Presidential approval ratings (mean)" 2 "Presidential approval ratings (mean + sd)") size(vsmall)) ///
>     graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ///
>     xtitle("Sanctions duration") ///
>     title("")

. 
. *********************************************Robustness section*********************************************
. 
. **Robustness Check 1: Continuous oversight measure (Table II Appendix)
. gen sanctions_type = .
(9883 missing values generated)

. replace sanctions_type = 1 if tertype == 4
(1638 real changes made)

. replace sanctions_type = 2 if tertype == 5
(977 real changes made)

. replace sanctions_type = 3 if tertype == 9
(5687 real changes made)

. replace sanctions_type = 4 if tertype == 10
(1466 real changes made)

. 
. set more off 

. stset duration_month, id(idnum) failure(termination_executive)

                id:  idnum
     failure event:  termination_executive != 0 & termination_executive < .
obs. time interval:  (duration_month[_n-1], duration_month]
 exit on or before:  failure

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  total observations
        0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  observations remaining, representing
      209  subjects
      125  failures in single-failure-per-subject data
     9883  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                              at risk from t =         0
                                   earliest observed entry t =         0
                                        last observed exit t =       347

. stcox pres_party_power_cong sender_approval_ratings c.sanctions_type  sender_unemployment_perc_lagged  mean_strength_bipartisanship sendersalience sender_leadershipchange_year log_NYT_above_mean target_log_gdppercap_lagged  target_polyarchy_t_1 targe
> t_leadershipchng_lggd_lst6 idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged log_trade_lagged, efron nohr vce(cluster target)

         failure _d:  termination_executive
   analysis time _t:  duration_month
                 id:  idnum

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -525.02799
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -503.61953
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -502.10377
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -502.09084
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -502.09084
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -502.09084

Cox regression -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          202                Number of obs   =      9505
No. of failures      =          119
Time at risk         =         9505
                                                   Wald chi2(13)   =     70.20
Log pseudolikelihood =   -502.09084                Prob > chi2     =    0.0000

                                                   (Std. Err. adjusted for 98 clusters in target)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |               Robust
                             _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          pres_party_power_cong |   .0268784   .0105407     2.55   0.011      .006219    .0475378
        sender_approval_ratings |   .7463554   1.392908     0.54   0.592    -1.983694    3.476405
                 sanctions_type |   .3661295   .0992122     3.69   0.000     .1716771    .5605819
sender_unemployment_perc_lagged |  -.0377647   .0599577    -0.63   0.529    -.1552796    .0797502
   mean_strength_bipartisanship |  -.3966244   1.247979    -0.32   0.751    -2.842619     2.04937
                 sendersalience |   .0406354   .2905258     0.14   0.889    -.5287846    .6100555
   sender_leadershipchange_year |  -.4513861   .3076697    -1.47   0.142    -1.054408    .1516354
             log_NYT_above_mean |  -.1304341   .2110553    -0.62   0.537    -.5440949    .2832268
    target_log_gdppercap_lagged |   -.323911   .0989958    -3.27   0.001    -.5179393   -.1298827
           target_polyarchy_t_1 |   .6131229   .5391199     1.14   0.255    -.4435326    1.669778
target_leadershipchng_lggd_lst6 |   .8261299   .3033352     2.72   0.006     .2316039    1.420656
     idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged |   .3362412   .1525281     2.20   0.027     .0372915    .6351908
               log_trade_lagged |   .1032164   .0465515     2.22   0.027     .0119771    .1944558
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. *Look at partial acquiesence
. stset duration_month, id(idnum) failure(status == 1)

                id:  idnum
     failure event:  status == 1
obs. time interval:  (duration_month[_n-1], duration_month]
 exit on or before:  failure

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  total observations
        0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  observations remaining, representing
      209  subjects
       88  failures in single-failure-per-subject data
     9883  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                              at risk from t =         0
                                   earliest observed entry t =         0
                                        last observed exit t =       347

. stcox pres_party_power_cong sender_approval_ratings c.sanctions_type  sender_unemployment_perc_lagged  mean_strength_bipartisanship sendersalience sender_leadershipchange_year log_NYT_above_mean target_log_gdppercap_lagged  target_polyarchy_t_1 targe
> t_leadershipchng_lggd_lst6 idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged log_trade_lagged, efron nohr vce(cluster target)

         failure _d:  status == 1
   analysis time _t:  duration_month
                 id:  idnum

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -371.73636
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -354.75822
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood =  -354.0254
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -354.02165
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -354.02165
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -354.02165

Cox regression -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          202                Number of obs   =      9505
No. of failures      =           84
Time at risk         =         9505
                                                   Wald chi2(13)   =     76.94
Log pseudolikelihood =   -354.02165                Prob > chi2     =    0.0000

                                                   (Std. Err. adjusted for 98 clusters in target)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |               Robust
                             _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          pres_party_power_cong |   .0207793   .0119512     1.74   0.082    -.0026446    .0442032
        sender_approval_ratings |  -.1917607   1.661128    -0.12   0.908    -3.447512     3.06399
                 sanctions_type |   .2752545   .1054726     2.61   0.009     .0685321    .4819769
sender_unemployment_perc_lagged |   .0461676   .0677476     0.68   0.496    -.0866153    .1789505
   mean_strength_bipartisanship |   1.396999   1.306597     1.07   0.285    -1.163883    3.957881
                 sendersalience |    .111089    .355169     0.31   0.754    -.5850294    .8072074
   sender_leadershipchange_year |  -.1982062   .3425461    -0.58   0.563    -.8695841    .4731718
             log_NYT_above_mean |  -.5142279   .2572182    -2.00   0.046    -1.018366   -.0100896
    target_log_gdppercap_lagged |   -.395218   .1112044    -3.55   0.000    -.6131746   -.1772613
           target_polyarchy_t_1 |  -.8184097   .6021031    -1.36   0.174     -1.99851    .3616907
target_leadershipchng_lggd_lst6 |   .8247948   .3764906     2.19   0.028     .0868869    1.562703
     idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged |   .5289416   .1623567     3.26   0.001     .2107282    .8471549
               log_trade_lagged |   .1680435    .056505     2.97   0.003     .0572957    .2787912
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. *Look at sender capitulation
. stset duration_month, id(idnum) failure(status == 2)

                id:  idnum
     failure event:  status == 2
obs. time interval:  (duration_month[_n-1], duration_month]
 exit on or before:  failure

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  total observations
        0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  observations remaining, representing
      209  subjects
       37  failures in single-failure-per-subject data
     9883  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                              at risk from t =         0
                                   earliest observed entry t =         0
                                        last observed exit t =       347

. stcox pres_party_power_cong sender_approval_ratings c.sanctions_type  sender_unemployment_perc_lagged  mean_strength_bipartisanship sendersalience sender_leadershipchange_year log_NYT_above_mean target_log_gdppercap_lagged  target_polyarchy_t_1 targe
> t_leadershipchng_lggd_lst6 idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged log_trade_lagged, efron nohr vce(cluster target) 

         failure _d:  status == 2
   analysis time _t:  duration_month
                 id:  idnum

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -153.76833
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -132.58688
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -130.14853
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -130.12276
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -130.12275
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -130.12275

Cox regression -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          202                Number of obs   =      9505
No. of failures      =           35
Time at risk         =         9505
                                                   Wald chi2(13)   =     39.58
Log pseudolikelihood =   -130.12275                Prob > chi2     =    0.0002

                                                   (Std. Err. adjusted for 98 clusters in target)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |               Robust
                             _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          pres_party_power_cong |   .0457854   .0238925     1.92   0.055    -.0010432    .0926139
        sender_approval_ratings |   5.559163   2.828954     1.97   0.049     .0145157    11.10381
                 sanctions_type |   .6707819    .234807     2.86   0.004     .2105687    1.130995
sender_unemployment_perc_lagged |  -.2919208   .1576109    -1.85   0.064    -.6008325    .0169908
   mean_strength_bipartisanship |  -5.826382   2.275428    -2.56   0.010    -10.28614   -1.366626
                 sendersalience |  -.1528603   .5559145    -0.27   0.783    -1.242433    .9367122
   sender_leadershipchange_year |  -1.547853   .6610512    -2.34   0.019    -2.843489   -.2522162
             log_NYT_above_mean |   1.042773   .4732295     2.20   0.028     .1152598    1.970285
    target_log_gdppercap_lagged |  -.2075103   .1925807    -1.08   0.281    -.5849615    .1699409
           target_polyarchy_t_1 |   3.988505   1.112601     3.58   0.000     1.807847    6.169163
target_leadershipchng_lggd_lst6 |   .6850035   .4773698     1.43   0.151    -.2506242    1.620631
     idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged |  -.1297213   .3084442    -0.42   0.674    -.7342608    .4748181
               log_trade_lagged |  -.0592071   .0901143    -0.66   0.511    -.2358279    .1174137
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. **Robustness Check 2: Divided government for PPP (Table III Appendix)
. gen divided = 1

. replace divided = 0 if congress_number == 103 |  congress_number == 108 | congress_number == 109 | congress_number == 111 | congress_number == 115
(4489 real changes made)

. 
. stset duration_month, id(idnum) failure(termination_executive)

                id:  idnum
     failure event:  termination_executive != 0 & termination_executive < .
obs. time interval:  (duration_month[_n-1], duration_month]
 exit on or before:  failure

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  total observations
        0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  observations remaining, representing
      209  subjects
      125  failures in single-failure-per-subject data
     9883  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                              at risk from t =         0
                                   earliest observed entry t =         0
                                        last observed exit t =       347

. set more off

. stcox divided sender_approval_ratings cong_oversight sender_unemployment_perc_lagged  mean_strength_bipartisanship sendersalience sender_leadershipchange_year log_NYT_above_mean target_log_gdppercap_lagged  target_polyarchy_t_1 target_leadershipchng_
> lggd_lst6 idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged log_trade_lagged, efron nohr vce(cluster target)

         failure _d:  termination_executive
   analysis time _t:  duration_month
                 id:  idnum

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -529.07056
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood =  -506.4986
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -504.65074
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -504.63425
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -504.63424
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -504.63424

Cox regression -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          203                Number of obs   =      9608
No. of failures      =          120
Time at risk         =         9608
                                                   Wald chi2(13)   =     65.04
Log pseudolikelihood =   -504.63424                Prob > chi2     =    0.0000

                                                   (Std. Err. adjusted for 98 clusters in target)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |               Robust
                             _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                        divided |  -.4720212   .2135853    -2.21   0.027    -.8906407   -.0534016
        sender_approval_ratings |   1.231469   1.489796     0.83   0.408    -1.688478    4.151416
                 cong_oversight |  -.9457413   .2717309    -3.48   0.001    -1.478324   -.4131584
sender_unemployment_perc_lagged |  -.0187664   .0613985    -0.31   0.760    -.1391053    .1015725
   mean_strength_bipartisanship |  -.6702045   1.257492    -0.53   0.594    -3.134843    1.794434
                 sendersalience |   .0469688   .2998513     0.16   0.876    -.5407289    .6346664
   sender_leadershipchange_year |  -.3339723   .3053238    -1.09   0.274    -.9323959    .2644512
             log_NYT_above_mean |  -.1380835   .2079191    -0.66   0.507    -.5455974    .2694304
    target_log_gdppercap_lagged |  -.3405081   .0972178    -3.50   0.000    -.5310516   -.1499646
           target_polyarchy_t_1 |   .3739218   .5174295     0.72   0.470    -.6402215    1.388065
target_leadershipchng_lggd_lst6 |   .8490595   .2886912     2.94   0.003     .2832352    1.414884
     idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged |   .3877936   .1533568     2.53   0.011     .0872198    .6883674
               log_trade_lagged |   .1292024   .0453521     2.85   0.004     .0403138    .2180909
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. *Look at partial acquiesence
. stset duration_month, id(idnum) failure(status == 1)

                id:  idnum
     failure event:  status == 1
obs. time interval:  (duration_month[_n-1], duration_month]
 exit on or before:  failure

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  total observations
        0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  observations remaining, representing
      209  subjects
       88  failures in single-failure-per-subject data
     9883  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                              at risk from t =         0
                                   earliest observed entry t =         0
                                        last observed exit t =       347

. stcox divided sender_approval_ratings cong_oversight sender_unemployment_perc_lagged  mean_strength_bipartisanship sendersalience sender_leadershipchange_year log_NYT_above_mean target_log_gdppercap_lagged  target_polyarchy_t_1 target_leadershipchng_
> lggd_lst6 idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged log_trade_lagged, efron nohr vce(cluster target)

         failure _d:  status == 1
   analysis time _t:  duration_month
                 id:  idnum

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -375.48992
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -356.58829
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -355.61321
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -355.60749
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -355.60749
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -355.60749

Cox regression -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          203                Number of obs   =      9608
No. of failures      =           85
Time at risk         =         9608
                                                   Wald chi2(13)   =     67.36
Log pseudolikelihood =   -355.60749                Prob > chi2     =    0.0000

                                                   (Std. Err. adjusted for 98 clusters in target)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |               Robust
                             _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                        divided |  -.4666215   .2543624    -1.83   0.067    -.9651626    .0319197
        sender_approval_ratings |   .3471099   1.767222     0.20   0.844    -3.116581    3.810801
                 cong_oversight |   -.782663   .3232743    -2.42   0.015    -1.416269    -.149057
sender_unemployment_perc_lagged |   .0619243   .0687029     0.90   0.367    -.0727309    .1965794
   mean_strength_bipartisanship |   .9964856   1.298062     0.77   0.443     -1.54767    3.540641
                 sendersalience |   .1393938   .3585645     0.39   0.697    -.5633797    .8421673
   sender_leadershipchange_year |  -.1257159   .3339186    -0.38   0.707    -.7801844    .5287525
             log_NYT_above_mean |  -.5106814   .2603218    -1.96   0.050    -1.020903     -.00046
    target_log_gdppercap_lagged |   -.390307   .1063923    -3.67   0.000    -.5988321   -.1817818
           target_polyarchy_t_1 |    -.98984   .5759028    -1.72   0.086    -2.118589    .1389087
target_leadershipchng_lggd_lst6 |    .827223   .3634832     2.28   0.023     .1148089    1.539637
     idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged |   .5572614    .154297     3.61   0.000     .2548449    .8596779
               log_trade_lagged |   .1871602   .0559189     3.35   0.001     .0775611    .2967594
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. *Look at sender capitulation
. stset duration_month, id(idnum) failure(status == 2)

                id:  idnum
     failure event:  status == 2
obs. time interval:  (duration_month[_n-1], duration_month]
 exit on or before:  failure

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  total observations
        0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  observations remaining, representing
      209  subjects
       37  failures in single-failure-per-subject data
     9883  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                              at risk from t =         0
                                   earliest observed entry t =         0
                                        last observed exit t =       347

. stcox divided sender_approval_ratings cong_oversight sender_unemployment_perc_lagged  mean_strength_bipartisanship sendersalience sender_leadershipchange_year log_NYT_above_mean target_log_gdppercap_lagged  target_polyarchy_t_1 target_leadershipchng_
> lggd_lst6 idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged log_trade_lagged, efron nohr vce(cluster target)

         failure _d:  status == 2
   analysis time _t:  duration_month
                 id:  idnum

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -154.05587
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood =  -134.5903
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -132.29018
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood =  -132.2641
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -132.26409
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -132.26409

Cox regression -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          203                Number of obs   =      9608
No. of failures      =           35
Time at risk         =         9608
                                                   Wald chi2(13)   =     43.37
Log pseudolikelihood =   -132.26409                Prob > chi2     =    0.0000

                                                   (Std. Err. adjusted for 98 clusters in target)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |               Robust
                             _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                        divided |  -.4857354    .434283    -1.12   0.263    -1.336914    .3654436
        sender_approval_ratings |   5.795755   3.033491     1.91   0.056    -.1497776    11.74129
                 cong_oversight |  -1.238952    .604777    -2.05   0.041    -2.424293   -.0536109
sender_unemployment_perc_lagged |  -.2754349   .1685432    -1.63   0.102    -.6057736    .0549038
   mean_strength_bipartisanship |  -5.942212   2.512101    -2.37   0.018    -10.86584   -1.018585
                 sendersalience |  -.2347041   .5784587    -0.41   0.685    -1.368462    .8990541
   sender_leadershipchange_year |  -1.209252    .666007    -1.82   0.069    -2.514601    .0960981
             log_NYT_above_mean |   1.007532   .4519804     2.23   0.026     .1216672    1.893398
    target_log_gdppercap_lagged |  -.2336996   .1906831    -1.23   0.220    -.6074316    .1400324
           target_polyarchy_t_1 |    3.62515   1.072487     3.38   0.001     1.523115    5.727186
target_leadershipchng_lggd_lst6 |   .6771434   .4863421     1.39   0.164    -.2760695    1.630356
     idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged |  -.0458284   .3252847    -0.14   0.888    -.6833748     .591718
               log_trade_lagged |  -.0239711   .0852037    -0.28   0.778    -.1909673    .1430251
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. **Robustness Check 3: Comprehensive sanctions (Table IV Appendix)
. set more off 

. stset duration_month, id(idnum) failure(termination_executive)

                id:  idnum
     failure event:  termination_executive != 0 & termination_executive < .
obs. time interval:  (duration_month[_n-1], duration_month]
 exit on or before:  failure

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  total observations
        0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  observations remaining, representing
      209  subjects
      125  failures in single-failure-per-subject data
     9883  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                              at risk from t =         0
                                   earliest observed entry t =         0
                                        last observed exit t =       347

. stcox pres_party_power_cong sender_approval_ratings cong_oversight sender_unemployment_perc_lagged mean_strength_bipartisanship sendersalience sender_leadershipchange_year log_NYT_above_mean comprehensive target_log_gdppercap_lagged  target_polyarchy
> _t_1 target_leadershipchng_lggd_lst6 idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged log_trade_lagged, efron nohr vce(cluster target)

         failure _d:  termination_executive
   analysis time _t:  duration_month
                 id:  idnum

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -529.07056
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -503.90798
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -501.28838
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -501.24554
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -501.24545
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -501.24545

Cox regression -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          203                Number of obs   =      9608
No. of failures      =          120
Time at risk         =         9608
                                                   Wald chi2(14)   =     82.78
Log pseudolikelihood =   -501.24545                Prob > chi2     =    0.0000

                                                   (Std. Err. adjusted for 98 clusters in target)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |               Robust
                             _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          pres_party_power_cong |   .0259768   .0104399     2.49   0.013      .005515    .0464387
        sender_approval_ratings |   .7959225   1.388407     0.57   0.566    -1.925306    3.517151
                 cong_oversight |  -.9411454   .2758601    -3.41   0.001    -1.481821   -.4004696
sender_unemployment_perc_lagged |  -.0364296   .0591534    -0.62   0.538    -.1523682     .079509
   mean_strength_bipartisanship |  -.3188351   1.225067    -0.26   0.795    -2.719923    2.082252
                 sendersalience |   .1429199   .3020306     0.47   0.636    -.4490492     .734889
   sender_leadershipchange_year |   -.450496   .3054581    -1.47   0.140    -1.049183    .1481909
             log_NYT_above_mean |  -.0742457   .1996292    -0.37   0.710    -.4655118    .3170203
                  comprehensive |  -1.218342   .5524848    -2.21   0.027    -2.301193   -.1354921
    target_log_gdppercap_lagged |  -.3703178   .0941656    -3.93   0.000     -.554879   -.1857566
           target_polyarchy_t_1 |   .3140413   .5386668     0.58   0.560    -.7417262    1.369809
target_leadershipchng_lggd_lst6 |   .8839607   .2875011     3.07   0.002     .3204689    1.447452
     idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged |   .4305911   .1587412     2.71   0.007     .1194642    .7417181
               log_trade_lagged |   .1287639   .0460876     2.79   0.005     .0384338    .2190939
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. *Look at partial acquiesence
. stset duration_month, id(idnum) failure(status == 1)

                id:  idnum
     failure event:  status == 1
obs. time interval:  (duration_month[_n-1], duration_month]
 exit on or before:  failure

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  total observations
        0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  observations remaining, representing
      209  subjects
       88  failures in single-failure-per-subject data
     9883  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                              at risk from t =         0
                                   earliest observed entry t =         0
                                        last observed exit t =       347

. stcox pres_party_power_cong sender_approval_ratings cong_oversight sender_unemployment_perc_lagged mean_strength_bipartisanship sendersalience sender_leadershipchange_year log_NYT_above_mean comprehensive target_log_gdppercap_lagged  target_polyarchy
> _t_1 target_leadershipchng_lggd_lst6 idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged log_trade_lagged, efron nohr vce(cluster target)

         failure _d:  status == 1
   analysis time _t:  duration_month
                 id:  idnum

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -375.48992
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -354.59016
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -353.12714
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -353.10264
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -353.10258
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -353.10258

Cox regression -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          203                Number of obs   =      9608
No. of failures      =           85
Time at risk         =         9608
                                                   Wald chi2(14)   =     73.03
Log pseudolikelihood =   -353.10258                Prob > chi2     =    0.0000

                                                   (Std. Err. adjusted for 98 clusters in target)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |               Robust
                             _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          pres_party_power_cong |   .0203644   .0118571     1.72   0.086     -.002875    .0436038
        sender_approval_ratings |  -.2099603   1.638357    -0.13   0.898    -3.421082    3.001161
                 cong_oversight |   -.749759   .3194115    -2.35   0.019    -1.375794    -.123724
sender_unemployment_perc_lagged |   .0476546   .0665121     0.72   0.474    -.0827068     .178016
   mean_strength_bipartisanship |   1.425603    1.25953     1.13   0.258     -1.04303    3.894237
                 sendersalience |   .3069592   .3369771     0.91   0.362    -.3535038    .9674222
   sender_leadershipchange_year |  -.1955902   .3428178    -0.57   0.568    -.8675008    .4763203
             log_NYT_above_mean |  -.4452854   .2567346    -1.73   0.083    -.9484759    .0579051
                  comprehensive |   -1.52074   .6103343    -2.49   0.013    -2.716974   -.3245073
    target_log_gdppercap_lagged |  -.4284961    .108392    -3.95   0.000    -.6409404   -.2160517
           target_polyarchy_t_1 |   -1.06287   .6035878    -1.76   0.078    -2.245881      .12014
target_leadershipchng_lggd_lst6 |   .8878683   .3636757     2.44   0.015     .1750771     1.60066
     idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged |   .6167184   .1693469     3.64   0.000     .2848045    .9486323
               log_trade_lagged |   .1871108   .0570473     3.28   0.001     .0753001    .2989215
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. *Look at sender capitulation
. stset duration_month, id(idnum) failure(status == 2)

                id:  idnum
     failure event:  status == 2
obs. time interval:  (duration_month[_n-1], duration_month]
 exit on or before:  failure

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  total observations
        0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  observations remaining, representing
      209  subjects
       37  failures in single-failure-per-subject data
     9883  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                              at risk from t =         0
                                   earliest observed entry t =         0
                                        last observed exit t =       347

. stcox pres_party_power_cong sender_approval_ratings cong_oversight sender_unemployment_perc_lagged mean_strength_bipartisanship sendersalience sender_leadershipchange_year log_NYT_above_mean comprehensive target_log_gdppercap_lagged target_polyarchy_
> t_1 target_leadershipchng_lggd_lst6 idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged log_trade_lagged, efron nohr vce(cluster target)

         failure _d:  status == 2
   analysis time _t:  duration_month
                 id:  idnum

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -154.05587
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -133.30786
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -130.72875
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -130.69434
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -130.69432
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -130.69432

Cox regression -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          203                Number of obs   =      9608
No. of failures      =           35
Time at risk         =         9608
                                                   Wald chi2(14)   =     50.70
Log pseudolikelihood =   -130.69432                Prob > chi2     =    0.0000

                                                   (Std. Err. adjusted for 98 clusters in target)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |               Robust
                             _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          pres_party_power_cong |   .0450461   .0245383     1.84   0.066    -.0030481    .0931402
        sender_approval_ratings |   6.062557   2.798938     2.17   0.030     .5767383    11.54837
                 cong_oversight |  -1.286347   .5975841    -2.15   0.031     -2.45759   -.1151036
sender_unemployment_perc_lagged |  -.2951019    .154155    -1.91   0.056    -.5972402    .0070364
   mean_strength_bipartisanship |  -5.977125   2.439822    -2.45   0.014    -10.75909   -1.195163
                 sendersalience |  -.2282766   .5805364    -0.39   0.694    -1.366107    .9095539
   sender_leadershipchange_year |   -1.56317   .6361293    -2.46   0.014     -2.80996   -.3163789
             log_NYT_above_mean |   1.046597   .4475213     2.34   0.019     .1694713    1.923723
                  comprehensive |  -.6935411   .9463404    -0.73   0.464    -2.548334    1.161252
    target_log_gdppercap_lagged |   -.254169   .1956533    -1.30   0.194    -.6376425    .1293044
           target_polyarchy_t_1 |   3.535912   1.062165     3.33   0.001     1.454107    5.617716
target_leadershipchng_lggd_lst6 |   .6632389   .4771934     1.39   0.165     -.272043    1.598521
     idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged |  -.0380244    .325729    -0.12   0.907    -.6764415    .6003928
               log_trade_lagged |  -.0255083   .0854511    -0.30   0.765    -.1929894    .1419728
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. **Robustness Check 4: Multiple sanctions (Table V Appendix)
. set more off

. stset duration_month, id(idnum) failure(termination_executive)

                id:  idnum
     failure event:  termination_executive != 0 & termination_executive < .
obs. time interval:  (duration_month[_n-1], duration_month]
 exit on or before:  failure

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  total observations
        0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  observations remaining, representing
      209  subjects
      125  failures in single-failure-per-subject data
     9883  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                              at risk from t =         0
                                   earliest observed entry t =         0
                                        last observed exit t =       347

. stcox pres_party_power_cong sender_approval_ratings cong_oversight sender_unemployment_perc_lagged  mean_strength_bipartisanship sendersalience sender_leadershipchange_year log_NYT_above_mean target_log_gdppercap_lagged target_polyarchy_t_1 target_le
> adershipchng_lggd_lst6 idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged log_trade_lagged multiple, efron nohr vce(cluster target)

         failure _d:  termination_executive
   analysis time _t:  duration_month
                 id:  idnum

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -529.07056
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -503.90459
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -502.05032
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -502.03439
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -502.03438
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -502.03438

Cox regression -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          203                Number of obs   =      9608
No. of failures      =          120
Time at risk         =         9608
                                                   Wald chi2(14)   =     72.79
Log pseudolikelihood =   -502.03438                Prob > chi2     =    0.0000

                                                   (Std. Err. adjusted for 98 clusters in target)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |               Robust
                             _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          pres_party_power_cong |   .0264084    .010509     2.51   0.012     .0058111    .0470057
        sender_approval_ratings |   .7209216   1.382679     0.52   0.602     -1.98908    3.430923
                 cong_oversight |  -.9841373   .2731714    -3.60   0.000    -1.519543   -.4487312
sender_unemployment_perc_lagged |  -.0440786   .0586052    -0.75   0.452    -.1589426    .0707854
   mean_strength_bipartisanship |  -.7297263   1.268916    -0.58   0.565    -3.216756    1.757304
                 sendersalience |   .1075118   .3026216     0.36   0.722    -.4856157    .7006393
   sender_leadershipchange_year |  -.4304775   .3023663    -1.42   0.155    -1.023105    .1621496
             log_NYT_above_mean |    -.11303   .2029655    -0.56   0.578    -.5108352    .2847751
    target_log_gdppercap_lagged |  -.3084025   .0917861    -3.36   0.001       -.4883   -.1285051
           target_polyarchy_t_1 |   .0665407   .4795371     0.14   0.890    -.8733348    1.006416
target_leadershipchng_lggd_lst6 |   .8063275   .2886155     2.79   0.005     .2406515    1.372004
     idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged |   .3971695   .1502188     2.64   0.008     .1027461    .6915929
               log_trade_lagged |    .121279   .0432453     2.80   0.005     .0365198    .2060383
                       multiple |  -.4594153   .2733753    -1.68   0.093     -.995221    .0763904
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. *Look at partial acquiesence
. stset duration_month, id(idnum) failure(status == 1)

                id:  idnum
     failure event:  status == 1
obs. time interval:  (duration_month[_n-1], duration_month]
 exit on or before:  failure

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  total observations
        0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  observations remaining, representing
      209  subjects
       88  failures in single-failure-per-subject data
     9883  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                              at risk from t =         0
                                   earliest observed entry t =         0
                                        last observed exit t =       347

. stcox pres_party_power_cong sender_approval_ratings cong_oversight sender_unemployment_perc_lagged  mean_strength_bipartisanship sendersalience sender_leadershipchange_year log_NYT_above_mean target_log_gdppercap_lagged target_polyarchy_t_1 target_le
> adershipchng_lggd_lst6 idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged log_trade_lagged multiple, efron nohr vce(cluster target)

         failure _d:  status == 1
   analysis time _t:  duration_month
                 id:  idnum

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -375.48992
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood =  -355.8018
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -354.85979
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -354.85408
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -354.85408
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -354.85408

Cox regression -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          203                Number of obs   =      9608
No. of failures      =           85
Time at risk         =         9608
                                                   Wald chi2(14)   =     69.18
Log pseudolikelihood =   -354.85408                Prob > chi2     =    0.0000

                                                   (Std. Err. adjusted for 98 clusters in target)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |               Robust
                             _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          pres_party_power_cong |   .0198679   .0117621     1.69   0.091    -.0031855    .0429212
        sender_approval_ratings |  -.2824914   1.606895    -0.18   0.860    -3.431947    2.866964
                 cong_oversight |  -.8151149   .3243823    -2.51   0.012    -1.450893   -.1793372
sender_unemployment_perc_lagged |   .0447557   .0660025     0.68   0.498    -.0846069    .1741183
   mean_strength_bipartisanship |   .9973206   1.325996     0.75   0.452    -1.601583    3.596224
                 sendersalience |   .1894263   .3809387     0.50   0.619    -.5571998    .9360524
   sender_leadershipchange_year |  -.1718827   .3375714    -0.51   0.611    -.8335106    .4897451
             log_NYT_above_mean |  -.4857927   .2521739    -1.93   0.054    -.9800444     .008459
    target_log_gdppercap_lagged |  -.3630985    .104857    -3.46   0.001    -.5686145   -.1575825
           target_polyarchy_t_1 |  -1.178394   .5809642    -2.03   0.043    -2.317063   -.0397249
target_leadershipchng_lggd_lst6 |   .7776085    .365973     2.12   0.034     .0603146    1.494902
     idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged |   .5751366   .1566976     3.67   0.000     .2680149    .8822582
               log_trade_lagged |   .1741339   .0534997     3.25   0.001     .0692764    .2789914
                       multiple |  -.3993419   .3361631    -1.19   0.235    -1.058209    .2595257
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. *Look at sender capitulation
. stset duration_month, id(idnum) failure(status == 2)

                id:  idnum
     failure event:  status == 2
obs. time interval:  (duration_month[_n-1], duration_month]
 exit on or before:  failure

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  total observations
        0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  observations remaining, representing
      209  subjects
       37  failures in single-failure-per-subject data
     9883  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                              at risk from t =         0
                                   earliest observed entry t =         0
                                        last observed exit t =       347

. stcox pres_party_power_cong sender_approval_ratings cong_oversight sender_unemployment_perc_lagged  mean_strength_bipartisanship sendersalience sender_leadershipchange_year log_NYT_above_mean target_log_gdppercap_lagged target_polyarchy_t_1 target_le
> adershipchng_lggd_lst6 idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged log_trade_lagged multiple, efron nohr vce(cluster target)

         failure _d:  status == 2
   analysis time _t:  duration_month
                 id:  idnum

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -154.05587
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood =  -132.7644
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -130.10629
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -130.07353
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -130.07352
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -130.07352

Cox regression -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          203                Number of obs   =      9608
No. of failures      =           35
Time at risk         =         9608
                                                   Wald chi2(14)   =     42.96
Log pseudolikelihood =   -130.07352                Prob > chi2     =    0.0001

                                                   (Std. Err. adjusted for 98 clusters in target)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |               Robust
                             _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          pres_party_power_cong |   .0493675   .0248682     1.99   0.047     .0006268    .0981083
        sender_approval_ratings |    5.94641   2.888864     2.06   0.040     .2843416    11.60848
                 cong_oversight |  -1.305429   .5927981    -2.20   0.028    -2.467292   -.1435659
sender_unemployment_perc_lagged |  -.3352983   .1758467    -1.91   0.057    -.6799514    .0093548
   mean_strength_bipartisanship |  -6.356932   2.453013    -2.59   0.010    -11.16475   -1.549116
                 sendersalience |  -.1348869    .590251    -0.23   0.819    -1.291758    1.021984
   sender_leadershipchange_year |  -1.498348   .6669724    -2.25   0.025     -2.80559   -.1911062
             log_NYT_above_mean |   1.066968   .4643071     2.30   0.022     .1569424    1.976993
    target_log_gdppercap_lagged |  -.1950872   .1958922    -1.00   0.319    -.5790287    .1888544
           target_polyarchy_t_1 |   2.930572   1.199456     2.44   0.015     .5796808    5.281464
target_leadershipchng_lggd_lst6 |   .6562572    .463943     1.41   0.157    -.2530544    1.565569
     idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged |  -.0561828   .3407628    -0.16   0.869    -.7240656       .6117
               log_trade_lagged |  -.0193317   .0836753    -0.23   0.817    -.1833322    .1446688
                       multiple |  -.6980603   .6716058    -1.04   0.299    -2.014384    .6182629
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. **Robustness Check 5: Deficit (Table VI Appendix)
. set more off 

. stset duration_month, id(idnum) failure(termination_executive)

                id:  idnum
     failure event:  termination_executive != 0 & termination_executive < .
obs. time interval:  (duration_month[_n-1], duration_month]
 exit on or before:  failure

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  total observations
        0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  observations remaining, representing
      209  subjects
      125  failures in single-failure-per-subject data
     9883  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                              at risk from t =         0
                                   earliest observed entry t =         0
                                        last observed exit t =       347

. stcox pres_party_power_cong sender_approval_ratings cong_oversight sender_unemployment_perc_lagged log_totaldeficit_lagged mean_strength_bipartisanship sendersalience sender_leadershipchange_year log_NYT_above_mean target_log_gdppercap_lagged  target
> _polyarchy_t_1 target_leadershipchng_lggd_lst6 idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged log_trade_lagged, efron nohr vce(cluster target)

         failure _d:  termination_executive
   analysis time _t:  duration_month
                 id:  idnum

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -529.07056
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -505.63311
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -503.70368
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -503.68683
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -503.68683
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -503.68683

Cox regression -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          203                Number of obs   =      9608
No. of failures      =          120
Time at risk         =         9608
                                                   Wald chi2(14)   =     68.19
Log pseudolikelihood =   -503.68683                Prob > chi2     =    0.0000

                                                   (Std. Err. adjusted for 98 clusters in target)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |               Robust
                             _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          pres_party_power_cong |   .0280772   .0103678     2.71   0.007     .0077567    .0483977
        sender_approval_ratings |    .646984   1.529954     0.42   0.672     -2.35167    3.645638
                 cong_oversight |  -.9580679   .2924965    -3.28   0.001     -1.53135   -.3847852
sender_unemployment_perc_lagged |  -.0439393   .0575626    -0.76   0.445      -.15676    .0688814
        log_totaldeficit_lagged |  -.0925387   .2418412    -0.38   0.702    -.5665387    .3814613
   mean_strength_bipartisanship |  -.5275638   1.234899    -0.43   0.669    -2.947921    1.892793
                 sendersalience |   .0177061    .293657     0.06   0.952     -.557851    .5932632
   sender_leadershipchange_year |   -.461009   .3057367    -1.51   0.132    -1.060242    .1382239
             log_NYT_above_mean |  -.1264277   .2070624    -0.61   0.541    -.5322625    .2794071
    target_log_gdppercap_lagged |  -.3271554   .0948451    -3.45   0.001    -.5130485   -.1412623
           target_polyarchy_t_1 |   .4101825   .5176571     0.79   0.428    -.6044067    1.424772
target_leadershipchng_lggd_lst6 |   .8400485   .2918057     2.88   0.004     .2681199    1.411977
     idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged |   .3877136   .1532413     2.53   0.011     .0873661    .6880612
               log_trade_lagged |   .1229247   .0450487     2.73   0.006     .0346309    .2112185
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. *Look at partial acquiesence
. stset duration_month, id(idnum) failure(status == 1)

                id:  idnum
     failure event:  status == 1
obs. time interval:  (duration_month[_n-1], duration_month]
 exit on or before:  failure

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  total observations
        0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  observations remaining, representing
      209  subjects
       88  failures in single-failure-per-subject data
     9883  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                              at risk from t =         0
                                   earliest observed entry t =         0
                                        last observed exit t =       347

. stcox pres_party_power_cong sender_approval_ratings cong_oversight sender_unemployment_perc_lagged log_totaldeficit_lagged mean_strength_bipartisanship sendersalience sender_leadershipchange_year log_NYT_above_mean target_log_gdppercap_lagged  target
> _polyarchy_t_1 target_leadershipchng_lggd_lst6 idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged log_trade_lagged, efron nohr vce(cluster target)

         failure _d:  status == 1
   analysis time _t:  duration_month
                 id:  idnum

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -375.48992
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -356.64867
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -355.56856
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -355.56243
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -355.56243
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -355.56243

Cox regression -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          203                Number of obs   =      9608
No. of failures      =           85
Time at risk         =         9608
                                                   Wald chi2(14)   =     68.40
Log pseudolikelihood =   -355.56243                Prob > chi2     =    0.0000

                                                   (Std. Err. adjusted for 98 clusters in target)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |               Robust
                             _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          pres_party_power_cong |   .0227579   .0119415     1.91   0.057    -.0006469    .0461628
        sender_approval_ratings |  -.4910841   1.695166    -0.29   0.772    -3.813548     2.83138
                 cong_oversight |  -.8083938   .3376458    -2.39   0.017    -1.470167   -.1466202
sender_unemployment_perc_lagged |   .0374608   .0647977     0.58   0.563    -.0895403     .164462
        log_totaldeficit_lagged |  -.1614017   .2498627    -0.65   0.518    -.6511237    .3283203
   mean_strength_bipartisanship |   1.158634   1.290309     0.90   0.369    -1.370325    3.687594
                 sendersalience |   .1201179   .3553168     0.34   0.735    -.5762901    .8165259
   sender_leadershipchange_year |  -.2333569    .361863    -0.64   0.519    -.9425953    .4758815
             log_NYT_above_mean |  -.5003632   .2612101    -1.92   0.055    -1.012326    .0115992
    target_log_gdppercap_lagged |  -.3698262   .1108974    -3.33   0.001    -.5871812   -.1524712
           target_polyarchy_t_1 |  -.9066081   .5768073    -1.57   0.116     -2.03713    .2239134
target_leadershipchng_lggd_lst6 |   .8180389   .3631685     2.25   0.024     .1062417    1.529836
     idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged |   .5717471   .1550687     3.69   0.000      .267818    .8756762
               log_trade_lagged |   .1768077   .0555468     3.18   0.001     .0679379    .2856774
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. *Look at sender capitulation
. stset duration_month, id(idnum) failure(status == 2)

                id:  idnum
     failure event:  status == 2
obs. time interval:  (duration_month[_n-1], duration_month]
 exit on or before:  failure

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  total observations
        0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  observations remaining, representing
      209  subjects
       37  failures in single-failure-per-subject data
     9883  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                              at risk from t =         0
                                   earliest observed entry t =         0
                                        last observed exit t =       347

. stcox pres_party_power_cong sender_approval_ratings cong_oversight sender_unemployment_perc_lagged log_totaldeficit_lagged mean_strength_bipartisanship sendersalience sender_leadershipchange_year log_NYT_above_mean target_log_gdppercap_lagged target_
> polyarchy_t_1 target_leadershipchng_lggd_lst6 idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged log_trade_lagged, efron nohr vce(cluster target)

         failure _d:  status == 2
   analysis time _t:  duration_month
                 id:  idnum

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -154.05587
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -133.20208
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -130.56875
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -130.52671
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -130.52667
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -130.52667

Cox regression -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          203                Number of obs   =      9608
No. of failures      =           35
Time at risk         =         9608
                                                   Wald chi2(14)   =     43.00
Log pseudolikelihood =   -130.52667                Prob > chi2     =    0.0001

                                                   (Std. Err. adjusted for 98 clusters in target)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |               Robust
                             _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          pres_party_power_cong |   .0410517   .0246762     1.66   0.096    -.0073128    .0894162
        sender_approval_ratings |   6.903493   3.019384     2.29   0.022      .985609    12.82138
                 cong_oversight |  -1.161632   .6329424    -1.84   0.066    -2.402177    .0789121
sender_unemployment_perc_lagged |  -.2679077   .1526109    -1.76   0.079    -.5670196    .0312041
        log_totaldeficit_lagged |   .4613458   .5522283     0.84   0.403    -.6210019    1.543693
   mean_strength_bipartisanship |  -6.075139   2.445777    -2.48   0.013    -10.86877   -1.281503
                 sendersalience |  -.2026851   .5599263    -0.36   0.717     -1.30012    .8947502
   sender_leadershipchange_year |  -1.565376    .669079    -2.34   0.019    -2.876746   -.2540051
             log_NYT_above_mean |   1.000984   .4502909     2.22   0.026     .1184304    1.883538
    target_log_gdppercap_lagged |  -.2761266   .1925148    -1.43   0.151    -.6534487    .1011955
           target_polyarchy_t_1 |   3.616379   1.045707     3.46   0.001      1.56683    5.665928
target_leadershipchng_lggd_lst6 |    .654009   .4613989     1.42   0.156    -.2503163    1.558334
     idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged |  -.0774908   .3323313    -0.23   0.816    -.7288483    .5738666
               log_trade_lagged |  -.0138927   .0864914    -0.16   0.872    -.1834127    .1556273
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. **Robustness Check 6: Administration dummies (Table VII Appendix)
. set more off

. stset duration_month, id(idnum) failure(termination_executive)

                id:  idnum
     failure event:  termination_executive != 0 & termination_executive < .
obs. time interval:  (duration_month[_n-1], duration_month]
 exit on or before:  failure

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  total observations
        0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  observations remaining, representing
      209  subjects
      125  failures in single-failure-per-subject data
     9883  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                              at risk from t =         0
                                   earliest observed entry t =         0
                                        last observed exit t =       347

. stcox pres_party_power_cong sender_approval_ratings cong_oversight  sender_unemployment_perc_lagged  mean_strength_bipartisanship sendersalience sender_leadershipchange_year log_NYT_above_mean target_log_gdppercap_lagged  target_polyarchy_t_1 target_
> leadershipchng_lggd_lst6 idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged log_trade_lagged clinton bush_jr obama trump, efron nohr vce(cluster target)

         failure _d:  termination_executive
   analysis time _t:  duration_month
                 id:  idnum

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -529.07056
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -501.12437
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -499.18642
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -499.16845
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -499.16845
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -499.16845

Cox regression -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          203                Number of obs   =      9608
No. of failures      =          120
Time at risk         =         9608
                                                   Wald chi2(17)   =     91.54
Log pseudolikelihood =   -499.16845                Prob > chi2     =    0.0000

                                                   (Std. Err. adjusted for 98 clusters in target)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |               Robust
                             _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          pres_party_power_cong |   .0481011   .0172191     2.79   0.005     .0143523    .0818498
        sender_approval_ratings |   1.084263   1.522775     0.71   0.476    -1.900321    4.068846
                 cong_oversight |  -.9146229   .2830586    -3.23   0.001    -1.469408   -.3598382
sender_unemployment_perc_lagged |  -.2428443   .1145977    -2.12   0.034    -.4674516   -.0182369
   mean_strength_bipartisanship |  -1.212735   1.450092    -0.84   0.403    -4.054862    1.629393
                 sendersalience |   .1511568   .3149276     0.48   0.631    -.4660899    .7684035
   sender_leadershipchange_year |  -.3367757   .3443789    -0.98   0.328    -1.011746    .3381946
             log_NYT_above_mean |  -.1729442   .2023073    -0.85   0.393    -.5694591    .2235708
    target_log_gdppercap_lagged |   -.373625   .0912793    -4.09   0.000    -.5525292   -.1947208
           target_polyarchy_t_1 |   .1797989   .5545786     0.32   0.746    -.9071551    1.266753
target_leadershipchng_lggd_lst6 |   .8786745   .2936631     2.99   0.003     .3031053    1.454244
     idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged |   .4058354   .1548291     2.62   0.009     .1023759    .7092949
               log_trade_lagged |   .1284925   .0445342     2.89   0.004     .0412072    .2157779
                        clinton |  -1.810627   .7051561    -2.57   0.010    -3.192708   -.4285467
                        bush_jr |  -1.440994   .8158192    -1.77   0.077    -3.039971    .1579819
                          obama |  -1.022116   .6720154    -1.52   0.128    -2.339242    .2950105
                          trump |  -2.405513   1.092983    -2.20   0.028     -4.54772   -.2633056
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. *Look at partial acquiesence
. stset duration_month, id(idnum) failure(status == 1)

                id:  idnum
     failure event:  status == 1
obs. time interval:  (duration_month[_n-1], duration_month]
 exit on or before:  failure

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  total observations
        0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  observations remaining, representing
      209  subjects
       88  failures in single-failure-per-subject data
     9883  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                              at risk from t =         0
                                   earliest observed entry t =         0
                                        last observed exit t =       347

. stcox pres_party_power_cong sender_approval_ratings cong_oversight  sender_unemployment_perc_lagged  mean_strength_bipartisanship sendersalience sender_leadershipchange_year log_NYT_above_mean target_log_gdppercap_lagged  target_polyarchy_t_1 target_
> leadershipchng_lggd_lst6 idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged log_trade_lagged clinton bush_jr obama trump, efron nohr vce(cluster target)

         failure _d:  status == 1
   analysis time _t:  duration_month
                 id:  idnum

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -375.48992
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -355.18764
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -354.06539
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -354.05867
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -354.05867
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -354.05867

Cox regression -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          203                Number of obs   =      9608
No. of failures      =           85
Time at risk         =         9608
                                                   Wald chi2(17)   =     70.08
Log pseudolikelihood =   -354.05867                Prob > chi2     =    0.0000

                                                   (Std. Err. adjusted for 98 clusters in target)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |               Robust
                             _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          pres_party_power_cong |   .0251579   .0182946     1.38   0.169     -.010699    .0610147
        sender_approval_ratings |   .2656126   1.629087     0.16   0.870     -2.92734    3.458565
                 cong_oversight |  -.8128595   .3333806    -2.44   0.015    -1.466273   -.1594456
sender_unemployment_perc_lagged |   .0347574   .1347579     0.26   0.796    -.2293632    .2988781
   mean_strength_bipartisanship |   .0029648   1.647709     0.00   0.999    -3.226485    3.232415
                 sendersalience |   .1932997   .3641983     0.53   0.596    -.5205159    .9071153
   sender_leadershipchange_year |  -.1064486   .3605671    -0.30   0.768     -.813147    .6002499
             log_NYT_above_mean |  -.5156502   .2570049    -2.01   0.045    -1.019371   -.0119298
    target_log_gdppercap_lagged |  -.3729647   .1066475    -3.50   0.000      -.58199   -.1639394
           target_polyarchy_t_1 |   -1.17548   .5994415    -1.96   0.050    -2.350363    -.000596
target_leadershipchng_lggd_lst6 |   .8392335   .3637847     2.31   0.021     .1262286    1.552238
     idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged |   .5736031   .1532313     3.74   0.000     .2732753     .873931
               log_trade_lagged |   .1751462   .0546523     3.20   0.001     .0680297    .2822627
                        clinton |  -.9017336   .7641842    -1.18   0.238    -2.399507      .59604
                        bush_jr |  -.5553569   .8468957    -0.66   0.512    -2.215242    1.104528
                          obama |  -.9547864    .684022    -1.40   0.163    -2.295445    .3858721
                          trump |  -1.230753    1.13389    -1.09   0.278    -3.453136    .9916299
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. *Look at sender capitulation
. stset duration_month, id(idnum) failure(status == 2)

                id:  idnum
     failure event:  status == 2
obs. time interval:  (duration_month[_n-1], duration_month]
 exit on or before:  failure

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  total observations
        0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  observations remaining, representing
      209  subjects
       37  failures in single-failure-per-subject data
     9883  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                              at risk from t =         0
                                   earliest observed entry t =         0
                                        last observed exit t =       347

. stcox pres_party_power_cong sender_approval_ratings cong_oversight  sender_unemployment_perc_lagged  mean_strength_bipartisanship sendersalience sender_leadershipchange_year log_NYT_above_mean target_log_gdppercap_lagged  target_polyarchy_t_1 target_
> leadershipchng_lggd_lst6 idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged log_trade_lagged clinton bush_jr obama trump, efron nohr vce(cluster target)

         failure _d:  status == 2
   analysis time _t:  duration_month
                 id:  idnum

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -154.05587
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -127.73293
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -123.88411
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -123.62147
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -123.59251
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -123.58276
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -123.57918
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -123.57787
Iteration 8:   log pseudolikelihood = -123.57738
Iteration 9:   log pseudolikelihood = -123.57721
Iteration 10:  log pseudolikelihood = -123.57714
Iteration 11:  log pseudolikelihood = -123.57712
Iteration 12:  log pseudolikelihood = -123.57711
Iteration 13:  log pseudolikelihood = -123.57711
Iteration 14:  log pseudolikelihood =  -123.5771
Iteration 15:  log pseudolikelihood =  -123.5771
Iteration 16:  log pseudolikelihood =  -123.5771
Iteration 17:  log pseudolikelihood =  -123.5771
Iteration 18:  log pseudolikelihood =  -123.5771
Iteration 19:  log pseudolikelihood =  -123.5771
Iteration 20:  log pseudolikelihood =  -123.5771
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =  -123.5771

Cox regression -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          203                Number of obs   =      9608
No. of failures      =           35
Time at risk         =         9608
                                                   Wald chi2(16)   =   1953.37
Log pseudolikelihood =    -123.5771                Prob > chi2     =    0.0000

                                                   (Std. Err. adjusted for 98 clusters in target)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |               Robust
                             _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          pres_party_power_cong |   .1280288   .0627905     2.04   0.041     .0049617     .251096
        sender_approval_ratings |   7.421258   3.496311     2.12   0.034     .5686148     14.2739
                 cong_oversight |  -.9625012   .6265183    -1.54   0.124    -2.190454     .265452
sender_unemployment_perc_lagged |  -1.010997   .4580988    -2.21   0.027    -1.908854   -.1131397
   mean_strength_bipartisanship |  -4.586189   2.997501    -1.53   0.126    -10.46118    1.288804
                 sendersalience |  -.0143673   .6249425    -0.02   0.982    -1.239232    1.210497
   sender_leadershipchange_year |  -1.863761   .8625881    -2.16   0.031    -3.554403   -.1731198
             log_NYT_above_mean |   .9313086   .4556219     2.04   0.041     .0383061    1.824311
    target_log_gdppercap_lagged |  -.3832104   .1901002    -2.02   0.044    -.7557998   -.0106209
           target_polyarchy_t_1 |   3.333489   1.250813     2.67   0.008     .8819408    5.785037
target_leadershipchng_lggd_lst6 |   .6799397   .4974682     1.37   0.172    -.2950801     1.65496
     idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged |  -.0119573   .3557421    -0.03   0.973    -.7091991    .6852844
               log_trade_lagged |   .0055503   .0877047     0.06   0.950    -.1663477    .1774482
                        clinton |   14.86899    1.15834    12.84   0.000     12.59869     17.1393
                        bush_jr |   15.38326   1.066337    14.43   0.000     13.29328    17.47324
                          obama |    17.9017   1.624799    11.02   0.000     14.71715    21.08624
                          trump |   14.23334          .        .       .            .           .
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. **Robustness Check 7: Decade dummies (Table VIII Appendix)
. gen year_2001 = 0

. replace year_2001 = 1 if year == 2001
(245 real changes made)

. replace year_2001 = 1 if year == 2002
(191 real changes made)

. replace year_2001 = 1 if year == 2003
(444 real changes made)

. replace year_2001 = 1 if year == 2004
(616 real changes made)

. replace year_2001 = 1 if year == 2005
(591 real changes made)

. replace year_2001 = 1 if year == 2006
(536 real changes made)

. replace year_2001 = 1 if year == 2007
(403 real changes made)

. replace year_2001 = 1 if year == 2008
(372 real changes made)

. replace year_2001 = 1 if year == 2009
(313 real changes made)

. replace year_2001 = 1 if year == 2010
(324 real changes made)

. 
. gen year_2011 = 0

. replace year_2011 = 1 if year == 2011
(345 real changes made)

. replace year_2011 = 1 if year == 2012
(396 real changes made)

. replace year_2011 = 1 if year == 2013
(424 real changes made)

. replace year_2011 = 1 if year == 2014
(484 real changes made)

. replace year_2011 = 1 if year == 2015
(473 real changes made)

. replace year_2011 = 1 if year == 2016
(471 real changes made)

. replace year_2011 = 1 if year == 2017
(590 real changes made)

. replace year_2011 = 1 if year == 2018
(673 real changes made)

. 
. set more off 

. stset duration_month, id(idnum) failure(termination_executive)

                id:  idnum
     failure event:  termination_executive != 0 & termination_executive < .
obs. time interval:  (duration_month[_n-1], duration_month]
 exit on or before:  failure

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  total observations
        0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  observations remaining, representing
      209  subjects
      125  failures in single-failure-per-subject data
     9883  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                              at risk from t =         0
                                   earliest observed entry t =         0
                                        last observed exit t =       347

. stcox pres_party_power_cong sender_approval_ratings cong_oversight sender_unemployment_perc_lagged mean_strength_bipartisanship sendersalience sender_leadershipchange_year log_NYT_above_mean target_log_gdppercap_lagged  target_polyarchy_t_1 target_le
> adershipchng_lggd_lst6 idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged log_trade_lagged year_2001 year_2011, efron nohr vce(cluster target)

         failure _d:  termination_executive
   analysis time _t:  duration_month
                 id:  idnum

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -529.07056
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -505.13481
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -503.17142
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -503.15477
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -503.15477
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -503.15477

Cox regression -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          203                Number of obs   =      9608
No. of failures      =          120
Time at risk         =         9608
                                                   Wald chi2(15)   =     68.95
Log pseudolikelihood =   -503.15477                Prob > chi2     =    0.0000

                                                   (Std. Err. adjusted for 98 clusters in target)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |               Robust
                             _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          pres_party_power_cong |   .0218167   .0110326     1.98   0.048     .0001932    .0434401
        sender_approval_ratings |   1.125046    1.53792     0.73   0.464    -1.889221    4.139313
                 cong_oversight |  -.8979761   .2760774    -3.25   0.001    -1.439078   -.3568743
sender_unemployment_perc_lagged |  -.0489579   .0621146    -0.79   0.431    -.1707002    .0727844
   mean_strength_bipartisanship |   -.850008   1.307709    -0.65   0.516    -3.413071    1.713055
                 sendersalience |   .0583514   .3071006     0.19   0.849    -.5435547    .6602576
   sender_leadershipchange_year |   -.424696   .3155119    -1.35   0.178    -1.043088     .193696
             log_NYT_above_mean |  -.1320292   .2024304    -0.65   0.514    -.5287855    .2647271
    target_log_gdppercap_lagged |  -.3600991   .0954282    -3.77   0.000    -.5471349   -.1730633
           target_polyarchy_t_1 |   .2988459   .5530962     0.54   0.589    -.7852027    1.382895
target_leadershipchng_lggd_lst6 |   .8591844   .2925542     2.94   0.003     .2857887     1.43258
     idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged |    .379709   .1545961     2.46   0.014     .0767062    .6827117
               log_trade_lagged |    .132434   .0459956     2.88   0.004     .0422842    .2225838
                      year_2001 |   .3524071   .3833558     0.92   0.358    -.3989565    1.103771
                      year_2011 |    .172123   .4183893     0.41   0.681    -.6479049     .992151
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. *Look at partial acquiesence
. stset duration_month, id(idnum) failure(status == 1)

                id:  idnum
     failure event:  status == 1
obs. time interval:  (duration_month[_n-1], duration_month]
 exit on or before:  failure

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  total observations
        0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  observations remaining, representing
      209  subjects
       88  failures in single-failure-per-subject data
     9883  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                              at risk from t =         0
                                   earliest observed entry t =         0
                                        last observed exit t =       347

. stcox pres_party_power_cong sender_approval_ratings cong_oversight sender_unemployment_perc_lagged mean_strength_bipartisanship sendersalience sender_leadershipchange_year log_NYT_above_mean target_log_gdppercap_lagged  target_polyarchy_t_1 target_le
> adershipchng_lggd_lst6 idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged log_trade_lagged year_2001 year_2011, efron nohr vce(cluster target)

         failure _d:  status == 1
   analysis time _t:  duration_month
                 id:  idnum

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -375.48992
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -356.21379
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -355.22922
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -355.22383
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -355.22383
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -355.22383

Cox regression -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          203                Number of obs   =      9608
No. of failures      =           85
Time at risk         =         9608
                                                   Wald chi2(15)   =     71.51
Log pseudolikelihood =   -355.22383                Prob > chi2     =    0.0000

                                                   (Std. Err. adjusted for 98 clusters in target)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |               Robust
                             _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          pres_party_power_cong |   .0133387   .0135487     0.98   0.325    -.0132162    .0398936
        sender_approval_ratings |  -.2610024   1.670538    -0.16   0.876    -3.535197    3.013192
                 cong_oversight |  -.7661404   .3184684    -2.41   0.016    -1.390327   -.1419538
sender_unemployment_perc_lagged |   .0414513   .0699101     0.59   0.553      -.09557    .1784726
   mean_strength_bipartisanship |   .7693469   1.392647     0.55   0.581     -1.96019    3.498884
                 sendersalience |   .1540773   .3608898     0.43   0.669    -.5532537    .8614084
   sender_leadershipchange_year |  -.1090078   .3491041    -0.31   0.755    -.7932392    .5752237
             log_NYT_above_mean |  -.4942801   .2562185    -1.93   0.054    -.9964591    .0078989
    target_log_gdppercap_lagged |   -.383529   .1096495    -3.50   0.000    -.5984381   -.1686199
           target_polyarchy_t_1 |  -1.112127   .6084973    -1.83   0.068     -2.30476    .0805056
target_leadershipchng_lggd_lst6 |   .8358928   .3663089     2.28   0.022     .1179406    1.553845
     idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged |   .5765901   .1515752     3.80   0.000     .2795081    .8736721
               log_trade_lagged |   .1811125   .0562209     3.22   0.001     .0709215    .2913035
                      year_2001 |   .1943758   .3800592     0.51   0.609    -.5505266    .9392781
                      year_2011 |  -.1815656   .4336237    -0.42   0.675    -1.031453    .6683212
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. *Look at sender capitulation
. stset duration_month, id(idnum) failure(status == 2)

                id:  idnum
     failure event:  status == 2
obs. time interval:  (duration_month[_n-1], duration_month]
 exit on or before:  failure

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  total observations
        0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  observations remaining, representing
      209  subjects
       37  failures in single-failure-per-subject data
     9883  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                              at risk from t =         0
                                   earliest observed entry t =         0
                                        last observed exit t =       347

. stcox pres_party_power_cong sender_approval_ratings cong_oversight sender_unemployment_perc_lagged mean_strength_bipartisanship sendersalience sender_leadershipchange_year log_NYT_above_mean target_log_gdppercap_lagged target_polyarchy_t_1 target_lea
> dershipchng_lggd_lst6 idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged log_trade_lagged year_2001 year_2011, efron nohr vce(cluster target)

         failure _d:  status == 2
   analysis time _t:  duration_month
                 id:  idnum

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -154.05587
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -132.01651
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -129.26947
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood =  -129.2151
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -129.21503
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -129.21503

Cox regression -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          203                Number of obs   =      9608
No. of failures      =           35
Time at risk         =         9608
                                                   Wald chi2(15)   =     49.87
Log pseudolikelihood =   -129.21503                Prob > chi2     =    0.0000

                                                   (Std. Err. adjusted for 98 clusters in target)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |               Robust
                             _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          pres_party_power_cong |   .0385576   .0221078     1.74   0.081     -.004773    .0818882
        sender_approval_ratings |   7.062733   2.833985     2.49   0.013     1.508225    12.61724
                 cong_oversight |  -1.152923   .6195174    -1.86   0.063    -2.367155    .0613089
sender_unemployment_perc_lagged |  -.2981168   .1782311    -1.67   0.094    -.6474434    .0512098
   mean_strength_bipartisanship |  -5.723325     2.5406    -2.25   0.024    -10.70281   -.7438411
                 sendersalience |  -.1673908   .5975734    -0.28   0.779    -1.338613    1.003831
   sender_leadershipchange_year |  -1.761761   .7412363    -2.38   0.017    -3.214557   -.3089641
             log_NYT_above_mean |   1.019842   .4768725     2.14   0.032      .085189    1.954495
    target_log_gdppercap_lagged |   -.311711   .1913605    -1.63   0.103    -.6867708    .0633488
           target_polyarchy_t_1 |   3.870471   1.258092     3.08   0.002     1.404655    6.336287
target_leadershipchng_lggd_lst6 |   .6144394   .4560865     1.35   0.178    -.2794737    1.508353
     idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged |  -.0762634   .3370799    -0.23   0.821    -.7369279    .5844011
               log_trade_lagged |  -.0064861   .0895314    -0.07   0.942    -.1819643    .1689921
                      year_2001 |   .9588432   .8986286     1.07   0.286    -.8024365    2.720123
                      year_2011 |   1.329886   .7643869     1.74   0.082    -.1682846    2.828057
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. **Robustness Check 8: Election proximity (Table IX Appendix)
. gen election_prox = .
(9883 missing values generated)

. replace election_prox = 3 if year == 2018 
(673 real changes made)

. replace election_prox = 4 if year == 2017
(590 real changes made)

. 
. replace election_prox = 1 if year == 2016 
(471 real changes made)

. replace election_prox = 2  if year == 2015
(473 real changes made)

. replace election_prox = 3  if year == 2014
(484 real changes made)

. replace election_prox = 4  if year == 2013
(424 real changes made)

. 
. replace election_prox = 1 if year == 2012
(396 real changes made)

. replace election_prox = 2 if year == 2011
(345 real changes made)

. replace election_prox = 3 if year == 2010
(324 real changes made)

. replace election_prox = 4 if year == 2009
(313 real changes made)

. 
. replace election_prox = 1 if year == 2008
(372 real changes made)

. replace election_prox = 2 if year == 2007
(403 real changes made)

. replace election_prox = 3 if year == 2006
(536 real changes made)

. replace election_prox = 4 if year == 2005
(591 real changes made)

. 
. replace election_prox = 1 if year == 2004
(616 real changes made)

. replace election_prox = 2 if year == 2003
(444 real changes made)

. replace election_prox = 3 if year == 2002
(191 real changes made)

. replace election_prox = 4 if year == 2001
(245 real changes made)

. 
. replace election_prox = 1 if year == 2000
(248 real changes made)

. replace election_prox = 2 if year == 1999
(237 real changes made)

. replace election_prox = 3 if year == 1998
(237 real changes made)

. replace election_prox = 4 if year == 1997
(220 real changes made)

. 
. replace election_prox = 1 if year == 1996
(193 real changes made)

. replace election_prox = 2 if year == 1995
(175 real changes made)

. replace election_prox = 3 if year == 1994
(183 real changes made)

. replace election_prox = 4 if year == 1993
(219 real changes made)

. 
. replace election_prox = 1 if year == 1992
(163 real changes made)

. replace election_prox = 2 if year == 1991
(97 real changes made)

. replace election_prox = 3 if year == 1990
(20 real changes made)

. 
. set more off 

. stset duration_month, id(idnum) failure(termination_executive)

                id:  idnum
     failure event:  termination_executive != 0 & termination_executive < .
obs. time interval:  (duration_month[_n-1], duration_month]
 exit on or before:  failure

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  total observations
        0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  observations remaining, representing
      209  subjects
      125  failures in single-failure-per-subject data
     9883  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                              at risk from t =         0
                                   earliest observed entry t =         0
                                        last observed exit t =       347

. stcox pres_party_power_cong sender_approval_ratings cong_oversight sender_unemployment_perc_lagged mean_strength_bipartisanship sendersalience sender_leadershipchange_year election_prox log_NYT_above_mean target_log_gdppercap_lagged  target_polyarchy
> _t_1 target_leadershipchng_lggd_lst6 idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged log_trade_lagged, efron nohr vce(cluster target)

         failure _d:  termination_executive
   analysis time _t:  duration_month
                 id:  idnum

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -529.07056
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -504.97659
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -503.01068
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -502.99391
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -502.99391
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -502.99391

Cox regression -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          203                Number of obs   =      9608
No. of failures      =          120
Time at risk         =         9608
                                                   Wald chi2(14)   =     69.39
Log pseudolikelihood =   -502.99391                Prob > chi2     =    0.0000

                                                   (Std. Err. adjusted for 98 clusters in target)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |               Robust
                             _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          pres_party_power_cong |   .0209194   .0107189     1.95   0.051    -.0000893    .0419281
        sender_approval_ratings |   .7712207   1.367078     0.56   0.573    -1.908204    3.450645
                 cong_oversight |  -.9288429   .2725508    -3.41   0.001    -1.463033   -.3946533
sender_unemployment_perc_lagged |  -.0372951   .0601065    -0.62   0.535    -.1551016    .0805115
   mean_strength_bipartisanship |  -.3275893   1.203382    -0.27   0.785    -2.686174    2.030996
                 sendersalience |   .0102647   .2950448     0.03   0.972    -.5680125    .5885418
   sender_leadershipchange_year |  -.5917521   .3177747    -1.86   0.063    -1.214579     .031075
                  election_prox |   .1423806   .1090313     1.31   0.192    -.0713168    .3560779
             log_NYT_above_mean |  -.1349731   .2038841    -0.66   0.508    -.5345785    .2646324
    target_log_gdppercap_lagged |  -.3382205   .0970428    -3.49   0.000    -.5284209   -.1480201
           target_polyarchy_t_1 |   .4363228   .5213549     0.84   0.403     -.585514     1.45816
target_leadershipchng_lggd_lst6 |   .8308749   .2959093     2.81   0.005     .2509033    1.410846
     idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged |   .3886209   .1522292     2.55   0.011     .0902571    .6869846
               log_trade_lagged |   .1262958   .0452793     2.79   0.005     .0375499    .2150416
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. *Look at partial acquiesence
. stset duration_month, id(idnum) failure(status == 1)

                id:  idnum
     failure event:  status == 1
obs. time interval:  (duration_month[_n-1], duration_month]
 exit on or before:  failure

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  total observations
        0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  observations remaining, representing
      209  subjects
       88  failures in single-failure-per-subject data
     9883  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                              at risk from t =         0
                                   earliest observed entry t =         0
                                        last observed exit t =       347

. stcox pres_party_power_cong sender_approval_ratings cong_oversight sender_unemployment_perc_lagged mean_strength_bipartisanship sendersalience sender_leadershipchange_year election_prox log_NYT_above_mean target_log_gdppercap_lagged  target_polyarchy
> _t_1 target_leadershipchng_lggd_lst6 idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged log_trade_lagged, efron nohr vce(cluster target)

         failure _d:  status == 1
   analysis time _t:  duration_month
                 id:  idnum

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -375.48992
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -356.78127
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -355.78798
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -355.78217
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -355.78217
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -355.78217

Cox regression -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          203                Number of obs   =      9608
No. of failures      =           85
Time at risk         =         9608
                                                   Wald chi2(14)   =     69.62
Log pseudolikelihood =   -355.78217                Prob > chi2     =    0.0000

                                                   (Std. Err. adjusted for 98 clusters in target)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |               Robust
                             _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          pres_party_power_cong |   .0188814    .011424     1.65   0.098    -.0035092    .0412719
        sender_approval_ratings |  -.2102906   1.628396    -0.13   0.897    -3.401888    2.981306
                 cong_oversight |  -.7610281   .3210515    -2.37   0.018    -1.390278   -.1317786
sender_unemployment_perc_lagged |    .045825   .0675919     0.68   0.498    -.0866528    .1783028
   mean_strength_bipartisanship |   1.270574   1.244548     1.02   0.307    -1.168695    3.709844
                 sendersalience |   .1138507   .3581238     0.32   0.751    -.5880591    .8157605
   sender_leadershipchange_year |  -.2332277   .3635549    -0.64   0.521    -.9457823    .4793269
                  election_prox |   .0510994   .1250825     0.41   0.683    -.1940579    .2962566
             log_NYT_above_mean |  -.5062481    .258755    -1.96   0.050    -1.013399    .0009023
    target_log_gdppercap_lagged |   -.394588   .1070621    -3.69   0.000    -.6044259   -.1847502
           target_polyarchy_t_1 |  -.9013439   .5896713    -1.53   0.126    -2.057078    .2543907
target_leadershipchng_lggd_lst6 |     .81295   .3706007     2.19   0.028      .086586    1.539314
     idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged |   .5631183   .1553891     3.62   0.000     .2585612    .8676754
               log_trade_lagged |   .1851995   .0566224     3.27   0.001     .0742217    .2961772
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. *Look at sender capitulation
. stset duration_month, id(idnum) failure(status == 2)

                id:  idnum
     failure event:  status == 2
obs. time interval:  (duration_month[_n-1], duration_month]
 exit on or before:  failure

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  total observations
        0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  observations remaining, representing
      209  subjects
       37  failures in single-failure-per-subject data
     9883  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                              at risk from t =         0
                                   earliest observed entry t =         0
                                        last observed exit t =       347

. stcox pres_party_power_cong sender_approval_ratings cong_oversight sender_unemployment_perc_lagged mean_strength_bipartisanship sendersalience sender_leadershipchange_year election_prox log_NYT_above_mean target_log_gdppercap_lagged target_polyarchy_
> t_1 target_leadershipchng_lggd_lst6 idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged log_trade_lagged, efron nohr vce(cluster target)

         failure _d:  status == 2
   analysis time _t:  duration_month
                 id:  idnum

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -154.05587
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -131.74552
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -129.57884
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -129.55095
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -129.55094
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -129.55094

Cox regression -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          203                Number of obs   =      9608
No. of failures      =           35
Time at risk         =         9608
                                                   Wald chi2(14)   =     58.85
Log pseudolikelihood =   -129.55094                Prob > chi2     =    0.0000

                                                   (Std. Err. adjusted for 98 clusters in target)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |               Robust
                             _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          pres_party_power_cong |   .0228967   .0258233     0.89   0.375    -.0277162    .0735095
        sender_approval_ratings |   5.618135   2.716286     2.07   0.039     .2943122    10.94196
                 cong_oversight |  -1.279695   .6044967    -2.12   0.034    -2.464487   -.0949033
sender_unemployment_perc_lagged |    -.27531     .15712    -1.75   0.080    -.5832596    .0326395
   mean_strength_bipartisanship |  -5.625795   2.365159    -2.38   0.017    -10.26142   -.9901681
                 sendersalience |  -.2670139   .5483266    -0.49   0.626    -1.341714    .8076865
   sender_leadershipchange_year |  -1.907982   .6539548    -2.92   0.004     -3.18971   -.6262544
                  election_prox |   .4144852   .1822615     2.27   0.023     .0572592    .7717112
             log_NYT_above_mean |   .9902149   .4507845     2.20   0.028     .1066934    1.873736
    target_log_gdppercap_lagged |  -.2198501   .1856116    -1.18   0.236    -.5836421    .1439419
           target_polyarchy_t_1 |   3.513591   1.058047     3.32   0.001     1.439857    5.587325
target_leadershipchng_lggd_lst6 |    .709596   .4696256     1.51   0.131    -.2108534    1.630045
     idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged |   -.065578   .3151851    -0.21   0.835    -.6833293    .5521734
               log_trade_lagged |  -.0245663    .085144    -0.29   0.773    -.1914455    .1423129
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. **Robustness Check 9: Including stalemate (Table X Appendix)
. clear

. set more off

. *replace line 235 below with your own working directory
. cd "/Users/hanaattia/Dropbox/Mac (2)/Desktop/PaperII_termination/FPA/Empirics/Replication"
/Users/hanaattia/Dropbox/Mac (2)/Desktop/PaperII_termination/FPA/Empirics/Replication

. use "1. Data_Replication.dta"
(Written by R.              )

. 
. gen cong_oversight = 0

. replace cong_oversight = 1 if tertype == 4
(1868 real changes made)

. replace cong_oversight = 1 if tertype == 5
(1034 real changes made)

. 
. drop if tertype == 1 
(116 observations deleted)

. drop if tertype == 2 
(356 observations deleted)

. 
. sort cowyearmonth

. quietly by cowyearmonth: gen dup = cond(_N==1,0,_n)

. gen multiple = 0

. replace multiple = 1 if dup > 0
(3408 real changes made)

. 
. ***T-test
. ttest duration_month, by(cong_oversight)

Two-sample t test with equal variances
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   Group |     Obs        Mean    Std. Err.   Std. Dev.   [95% Conf. Interval]
---------+--------------------------------------------------------------------
       0 |    7376    45.20662    .4993745     42.8881     44.2277    46.18553
       1 |    2902    77.15644    1.353687    72.92342    74.50216    79.81073
---------+--------------------------------------------------------------------
combined |   10278    54.22767    .5427768    55.02697    53.16372    55.29162
---------+--------------------------------------------------------------------
    diff |           -31.94983    1.163928               -34.23135    -29.6683
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    diff = mean(0) - mean(1)                                      t = -27.4500
Ho: diff = 0                                     degrees of freedom =    10276

    Ha: diff < 0                 Ha: diff != 0                 Ha: diff > 0
 Pr(T < t) = 0.0000         Pr(|T| > |t|) = 0.0000          Pr(T > t) = 1.0000

. 
. gen log_NYT_above_mean = 0

. replace log_NYT_above_mean = 1 if log_NYT_monthly_t_1 > 2.602981
(5854 real changes made)

. 
. generate termination_targetco = 0

. replace  termination_targetco = 1 if status == 1
(88 real changes made)

. 
. generate termination_senderca = 0

. replace  termination_senderca = 1 if status == 2
(43 real changes made)

. 
. corr pres_party_power_cong sender_approval_ratings cong_oversight sender_unemployment_perc_lagged log_totaldeficit_lagged sender_costly sendersalience mean_strength_bipartisanship sender_leadershipchange_year log_NYT_above_mean target_log_gdppercap_l
> agged target_costly target_polyarchy_t_1 target_leadershipchange_laggd_1 idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged log_trade_lagged
(obs=9933)

             | pres_p~g sender~s cong_o~t sender~d log_to~d sender~y sender~e mean_s~p sender~r log_NY~n target~d target~y targ~t_1 targ~d_1 idealp~d log_tr~d
-------------+------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
pres_party~g |   1.0000
sender_app~s |   0.0133   1.0000
cong_overs~t |  -0.0272   0.0956   1.0000
sender_une~d |   0.0455   0.0801   0.0366   1.0000
log_totald~d |   0.1369  -0.4282  -0.2853  -0.1155   1.0000
sender_cos~y |  -0.0934   0.0749   0.3278   0.0395  -0.1637   1.0000
sendersali~e |   0.0183  -0.0065   0.1571  -0.0317  -0.0595   0.2229   1.0000
mean_stren~p |   0.0107   0.5996   0.0247   0.0212  -0.2758  -0.0352  -0.0603   1.0000
sender_lea~r |   0.4382   0.0837   0.0409   0.0316  -0.1001   0.0459   0.0899  -0.1308   1.0000
log_NYT_ab~n |   0.0169  -0.0684   0.0506  -0.0839   0.0343   0.1143   0.0786  -0.0641   0.0145   1.0000
target_log~d |   0.0111  -0.2797  -0.0121   0.0327   0.3127  -0.1139   0.0187  -0.2224  -0.0313   0.1764   1.0000
target_cos~y |  -0.0541   0.1128   0.2728  -0.0057  -0.2097   0.2795   0.0209   0.0488   0.0491   0.1616  -0.1202   1.0000
target_pol~1 |   0.1085  -0.0117  -0.0413  -0.1042   0.0350  -0.2076  -0.0593   0.1879  -0.0976   0.0469   0.3475   0.0056   1.0000
target_lea~1 |  -0.0065   0.0190  -0.0126   0.0277  -0.0255  -0.0125  -0.0156   0.0111   0.0191   0.0296  -0.0335   0.0332   0.0272   1.0000
idealpoint~d |   0.1129   0.0140  -0.0349  -0.0535   0.0661  -0.1382  -0.1638   0.0624   0.0132  -0.0856   0.2210   0.0153   0.3938   0.0060   1.0000
log_trade_~d |   0.0484  -0.0925   0.1152  -0.0657   0.0696   0.0589   0.1154  -0.0348  -0.0249   0.3833   0.5531   0.1303   0.4180   0.0051   0.0715   1.0000


. 
. sum duration_month termination_executive termination_targetcomp termination_sendercap pres_party_power_cong sender_approval_ratings cong_oversight sender_unemployment_perc_lagged log_totaldeficit_lagged mean_strength_bipartisanship sendersalience sen
> der_leadershipchange_year log_NYT_above_mean comprehensive target_log_gdppercap_lagged  target_polyarchy_t_1 target_leadershipchng_lggd_lst6 idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged log_trade_lagged

    Variable |       Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
duration_m~h |     10278    54.22767    55.02697          1        347
terminatio~e |     10278    .0127457    .1121804          0          1
terminati~mp |     10278    .0088539     .093682          0          1
terminati~ap |     10278    .0049621    .0702703          0          1
pres_party~g |     10278   -1.194867    10.37186   -21.5164   17.92492
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
sender_app~s |     10278    .4786331    .1003249        .27        .88
cong_overs~t |     10278    .2823507    .4501649          0          1
sender_une~d |     10278    5.805565    1.607638        3.5       10.6
log_totald~d |     10278     10.6734    .6517264   8.207538   11.23882
mean_stren~p |     10258    .6455785    .1099642   .5127991   .8558344
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
sendersali~e |     10278     .131835    .3383277          0          1
sender_lea~r |     10278    .1388402    .3457966          0          1
log_NYT_ab~n |     10278    .5695661     .495161          0          1
comprehens~e |     10278     .086009    .2803909          0          1
target_log~d |     10278    7.309426    1.268233   4.456523   11.04149
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
target_pol~1 |     10128    .3437435    .2089318       .022       .902
target_lea~6 |     10278    .0686904    .2529392          0          1
idealpoint~d |     10095   -3.362011    .7010054  -5.044481   -.354637
log_trade_~d |     10278    2.906682    3.315291  -6.907755   11.02021

. 
. set more off 

. stset duration_month, id(idnum) failure(termination_executive)

                id:  idnum
     failure event:  termination_executive != 0 & termination_executive < .
obs. time interval:  (duration_month[_n-1], duration_month]
 exit on or before:  failure

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    10278  total observations
        0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    10278  observations remaining, representing
      215  subjects
      131  failures in single-failure-per-subject data
    10278  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                              at risk from t =         0
                                   earliest observed entry t =         0
                                        last observed exit t =       347

. stcox pres_party_power_cong sender_approval_ratings cong_oversight sender_unemployment_perc_lagged  mean_strength_bipartisanship sendersalience sender_leadershipchange_year log_NYT_above_mean target_log_gdppercap_lagged  target_polyarchy_t_1 target_l
> eadershipchng_lggd_lst6 idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged log_trade_lagged, efron nohr vce(cluster target)

         failure _d:  termination_executive
   analysis time _t:  duration_month
                 id:  idnum

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -556.80591
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -535.29206
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -533.71544
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -533.70229
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -533.70228
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -533.70228

Cox regression -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          209                Number of obs   =      9933
No. of failures      =          126
Time at risk         =         9933
                                                   Wald chi2(13)   =     65.01
Log pseudolikelihood =   -533.70228                Prob > chi2     =    0.0000

                                                  (Std. Err. adjusted for 101 clusters in target)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |               Robust
                             _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          pres_party_power_cong |   .0229333   .0095792     2.39   0.017     .0041583    .0417082
        sender_approval_ratings |   1.661847   1.319118     1.26   0.208    -.9235765    4.247271
                 cong_oversight |  -.7007776   .2514967    -2.79   0.005    -1.193702   -.2078532
sender_unemployment_perc_lagged |  -.0405835   .0574238    -0.71   0.480     -.153132     .071965
   mean_strength_bipartisanship |  -1.285373    1.26504    -1.02   0.310    -3.764807     1.19406
                 sendersalience |  -.0362764   .3065322    -0.12   0.906    -.6370685    .5645157
   sender_leadershipchange_year |  -.4726746   .3023372    -1.56   0.118    -1.065244    .1198954
             log_NYT_above_mean |  -.0717392   .1993916    -0.36   0.719    -.4625396    .3190612
    target_log_gdppercap_lagged |  -.3030642   .0914882    -3.31   0.001    -.4823778   -.1237506
           target_polyarchy_t_1 |    .608896   .5227923     1.16   0.244     -.415758     1.63355
target_leadershipchng_lggd_lst6 |   .7802099   .2781515     2.80   0.005     .2350429    1.325377
     idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged |   .3630912   .1339046     2.71   0.007     .1006429    .6255394
               log_trade_lagged |   .1124172   .0429105     2.62   0.009     .0283142    .1965203
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. *Look at partial acquiesence
. stset duration_month, id(idnum) failure(status == 1)

                id:  idnum
     failure event:  status == 1
obs. time interval:  (duration_month[_n-1], duration_month]
 exit on or before:  failure

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    10278  total observations
        0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    10278  observations remaining, representing
      215  subjects
       88  failures in single-failure-per-subject data
    10278  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                              at risk from t =         0
                                   earliest observed entry t =         0
                                        last observed exit t =       347

. stcox pres_party_power_cong sender_approval_ratings cong_oversight sender_unemployment_perc_lagged  mean_strength_bipartisanship sendersalience sender_leadershipchange_year log_NYT_above_mean target_log_gdppercap_lagged  target_polyarchy_t_1 target_l
> eadershipchng_lggd_lst6 idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged log_trade_lagged, efron nohr vce(cluster target)

         failure _d:  status == 1
   analysis time _t:  duration_month
                 id:  idnum

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -378.15962
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -359.60951
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -358.57607
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -358.56946
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -358.56946
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -358.56946

Cox regression -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          209                Number of obs   =      9933
No. of failures      =           85
Time at risk         =         9933
                                                   Wald chi2(13)   =     66.76
Log pseudolikelihood =   -358.56946                Prob > chi2     =    0.0000

                                                  (Std. Err. adjusted for 101 clusters in target)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |               Robust
                             _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          pres_party_power_cong |   .0208472   .0118129     1.76   0.078    -.0023057        .044
        sender_approval_ratings |  -.0842353   1.619992    -0.05   0.959    -3.259362    3.090891
                 cong_oversight |  -.8224928   .3178416    -2.59   0.010    -1.445451   -.1995346
sender_unemployment_perc_lagged |   .0397582   .0672817     0.59   0.555    -.0921115    .1716279
   mean_strength_bipartisanship |   1.198192   1.256416     0.95   0.340    -1.264339    3.660723
                 sendersalience |   .1259919   .3583268     0.35   0.725    -.5763157    .8282994
   sender_leadershipchange_year |  -.1650176   .3349597    -0.49   0.622    -.8215265    .4914914
             log_NYT_above_mean |  -.4709174   .2608212    -1.81   0.071    -.9821175    .0402827
    target_log_gdppercap_lagged |  -.3791326   .1081456    -3.51   0.000    -.5910941   -.1671711
           target_polyarchy_t_1 |  -.9927771   .5769419    -1.72   0.085    -2.123562    .1380082
target_leadershipchng_lggd_lst6 |   .8525243   .3623134     2.35   0.019      .142403    1.562646
     idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged |   .4716857   .1611444     2.93   0.003     .1558485    .7875229
               log_trade_lagged |   .1880424   .0561668     3.35   0.001     .0779575    .2981272
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. *Look at sender capitulation
. stset duration_month, id(idnum) failure(status == 2)

                id:  idnum
     failure event:  status == 2
obs. time interval:  (duration_month[_n-1], duration_month]
 exit on or before:  failure

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    10278  total observations
        0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    10278  observations remaining, representing
      215  subjects
       43  failures in single-failure-per-subject data
    10278  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                              at risk from t =         0
                                   earliest observed entry t =         0
                                        last observed exit t =       347

. stcox pres_party_power_cong sender_approval_ratings cong_oversight sender_unemployment_perc_lagged  mean_strength_bipartisanship sendersalience sender_leadershipchange_year log_NYT_above_mean target_log_gdppercap_lagged target_polyarchy_t_1 target_le
> adershipchng_lggd_lst6 idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged log_trade_lagged, efron nohr vce(cluster target)

         failure _d:  status == 2
   analysis time _t:  duration_month
                 id:  idnum

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -179.09654
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood =  -156.4334
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -154.93119
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -154.92211
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -154.92211
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -154.92211

Cox regression -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          209                Number of obs   =      9933
No. of failures      =           41
Time at risk         =         9933
                                                   Wald chi2(13)   =     40.33
Log pseudolikelihood =   -154.92211                Prob > chi2     =    0.0001

                                                  (Std. Err. adjusted for 101 clusters in target)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |               Robust
                             _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          pres_party_power_cong |   .0350831   .0175324     2.00   0.045     .0007202     .069446
        sender_approval_ratings |   8.200042   2.682881     3.06   0.002     2.941691    13.45839
                 cong_oversight |  -.3830533   .4004101    -0.96   0.339    -1.167843    .4017362
sender_unemployment_perc_lagged |  -.2325582   .1369188    -1.70   0.089     -.500914    .0357977
   mean_strength_bipartisanship |  -8.359331   2.540591    -3.29   0.001     -13.3388   -3.379863
                 sendersalience |  -.2960589   .4782845    -0.62   0.536    -1.233479    .6413614
   sender_leadershipchange_year |  -1.737859   .6487458    -2.68   0.007    -3.009378    -.466341
             log_NYT_above_mean |   .8685182   .3771782     2.30   0.021     .1292625    1.607774
    target_log_gdppercap_lagged |  -.1771959   .1704906    -1.04   0.299    -.5113513    .1569594
           target_polyarchy_t_1 |   3.804491    .943373     4.03   0.000     1.955514    5.653468
target_leadershipchng_lggd_lst6 |   .4313611    .465494     0.93   0.354    -.4809903    1.343712
     idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged |   .1226208   .2399012     0.51   0.609    -.3475769    .5928184
               log_trade_lagged |  -.0318721   .0655749    -0.49   0.627    -.1603966    .0966523
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. *********************************************Appendix*********************************************
. clear

. set more off

. *replace line 281 below with your own working directory
. cd "/Users/hanaattia/Dropbox/Mac (2)/Desktop/PaperII_termination/FPA/Empirics/Replication"
/Users/hanaattia/Dropbox/Mac (2)/Desktop/PaperII_termination/FPA/Empirics/Replication

. use "1. Data_Replication.dta"
(Written by R.              )

. 
. *Creating congressional oversight variable
. gen cong_oversight = 0

. replace cong_oversight = 1 if tertype == 4
(1868 real changes made)

. replace cong_oversight = 1 if tertype == 5
(1034 real changes made)

. 
. *Droping congressional sanctions cases and keeping congressional oversight and executive sanctions cases
. drop if tertype == 1 
(116 observations deleted)

. drop if tertype == 2 
(356 observations deleted)

. 
. *Droping cases that ended in stalemate
. drop if drop_stalemate == 1
(395 observations deleted)

. 
. *Creating variable that denotes whether the country is targeted by multiple US sanctions regimes
. sort cowyearmonth

. quietly by cowyearmonth: gen dup = cond(_N==1,0,_n)

. gen multiple = 0

. replace multiple = 1 if dup > 0
(3351 real changes made)

. 
. *Creating variable that denotes whether the country has received above average NYT news coverage
. gen log_NYT_above_mean = 0

. replace log_NYT_above_mean = 1 if log_NYT_monthly_t_1 > 2.602981
(5660 real changes made)

. 
. 
. generate termination_targetco = 0

. replace  termination_targetco = 1 if status == 1
(88 real changes made)

. 
. generate termination_senderca = 0

. replace  termination_senderca = 1 if status == 2
(37 real changes made)

. 
. **Table I Appendix: Descriptive statistics of variables
. sum duration_month termination_executive termination_targetcomp termination_sendercap pres_party_power_cong sender_approval_ratings cong_oversight sender_unemployment_perc_lagged mean_strength_bipartisanship sendersalience sender_leadershipchange_yea
> r log_NYT_above_mean target_log_gdppercap_lagged  target_polyarchy_t_1 target_leadershipchng_lggd_lst6 idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged log_trade_lagged

    Variable |       Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
duration_m~h |      9883    54.95012    55.78248          1        347
terminatio~e |      9883     .012648    .1117554          0          1
terminati~mp |      9883    .0092077     .095519          0          1
terminati~ap |      9883    .0051604    .0716538          0          1
pres_party~g |      9883   -1.128211    10.23555   -21.5164   17.92492
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
sender_app~s |      9883    .4791477    .1011726        .27        .88
cong_overs~t |      9883    .2645958      .44114          0          1
sender_une~d |      9883    5.774846    1.609652        3.5       10.6
mean_stren~p |      9863    .6460537     .111058   .5127991   .8558344
sendersali~e |      9883    .1371041    .3439746          0          1
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
sender_lea~r |      9883    .1383183    .3452513          0          1
log_NYT_ab~n |      9883    .5727006    .4947114          0          1
target_log~d |      9883      7.2897    1.273512   4.456523   11.04149
target_pol~1 |      9751    .3395317     .208549       .022       .902
target_lea~6 |      9883    .0678944    .2515773          0          1
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
idealpoint~d |      9760   -3.392741    .6742335  -5.044481   -.354637
log_trade_~d |      9883    2.947871    3.275119  -6.907755   11.02021

. 
. ** Table XI Appendix: Sender leadership change 6 months lag
. set more off

. stset duration_month, id(idnum) failure(termination_executive)

                id:  idnum
     failure event:  termination_executive != 0 & termination_executive < .
obs. time interval:  (duration_month[_n-1], duration_month]
 exit on or before:  failure

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  total observations
        0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  observations remaining, representing
      209  subjects
      125  failures in single-failure-per-subject data
     9883  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                              at risk from t =         0
                                   earliest observed entry t =         0
                                        last observed exit t =       347

. stcox pres_party_power_cong sender_approval_ratings cong_oversight sender_unemployment_perc_lagged  mean_strength_bipartisanship sendersalience sender_leadershipchange_lst6mo log_NYT_above_mean target_log_gdppercap_lagged  target_polyarchy_t_1 target
> _leadershipchng_lggd_lst6 idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged log_trade_lagged, efron nohr vce(cluster target)

         failure _d:  termination_executive
   analysis time _t:  duration_month
                 id:  idnum

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -529.07056
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -504.25347
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood =   -502.266
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -502.24933
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -502.24933
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -502.24933

Cox regression -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          203                Number of obs   =      9608
No. of failures      =          120
Time at risk         =         9608
                                                   Wald chi2(13)   =     74.78
Log pseudolikelihood =   -502.24933                Prob > chi2     =    0.0000

                                                   (Std. Err. adjusted for 98 clusters in target)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |               Robust
                             _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          pres_party_power_cong |   .0258363    .010023     2.58   0.010     .0061916     .045481
        sender_approval_ratings |   .5860499   1.268973     0.46   0.644    -1.901092    3.073192
                 cong_oversight |  -.9305272   .2721952    -3.42   0.001     -1.46402   -.3970343
sender_unemployment_perc_lagged |  -.0345726   .0599078    -0.58   0.564    -.1519897    .0828446
   mean_strength_bipartisanship |  -.3825432   1.192389    -0.32   0.748    -2.719582    1.954495
                 sendersalience |   .0162084    .293742     0.06   0.956    -.5595153    .5919321
 sender_leadershipchange_lst6mo |  -1.154702   .6065615    -1.90   0.057     -2.34354    .0341373
             log_NYT_above_mean |  -.1206769   .2061031    -0.59   0.558    -.5246315    .2832777
    target_log_gdppercap_lagged |  -.3447146   .0978137    -3.52   0.000     -.536426   -.1530033
           target_polyarchy_t_1 |   .4274366    .523701     0.82   0.414    -.5989985    1.453872
target_leadershipchng_lggd_lst6 |   .8615646    .289548     2.98   0.003      .294061    1.429068
     idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged |   .3833814   .1558762     2.46   0.014     .0778696    .6888933
               log_trade_lagged |   .1251928   .0448969     2.79   0.005     .0371965     .213189
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. *Look at partial acquiesence
. stset duration_month, id(idnum) failure(status == 1)

                id:  idnum
     failure event:  status == 1
obs. time interval:  (duration_month[_n-1], duration_month]
 exit on or before:  failure

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  total observations
        0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  observations remaining, representing
      209  subjects
       88  failures in single-failure-per-subject data
     9883  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                              at risk from t =         0
                                   earliest observed entry t =         0
                                        last observed exit t =       347

. stcox pres_party_power_cong sender_approval_ratings cong_oversight sender_unemployment_perc_lagged  mean_strength_bipartisanship sendersalience sender_leadershipchange_lst6mo log_NYT_above_mean target_log_gdppercap_lagged  target_polyarchy_t_1 target
> _leadershipchng_lggd_lst6 idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged log_trade_lagged, efron nohr vce(cluster target)

         failure _d:  status == 1
   analysis time _t:  duration_month
                 id:  idnum

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -375.48992
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -355.64782
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -354.66988
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -354.66435
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -354.66435
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -354.66435

Cox regression -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          203                Number of obs   =      9608
No. of failures      =           85
Time at risk         =         9608
                                                   Wald chi2(13)   =     73.63
Log pseudolikelihood =   -354.66435                Prob > chi2     =    0.0000

                                                   (Std. Err. adjusted for 98 clusters in target)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |               Robust
                             _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          pres_party_power_cong |   .0224393   .0111182     2.02   0.044     .0006481    .0442305
        sender_approval_ratings |  -.1095444   1.603004    -0.07   0.946    -3.251374    3.032285
                 cong_oversight |  -.7672557   .3192156    -2.40   0.016    -1.392907   -.1416046
sender_unemployment_perc_lagged |   .0460559   .0680315     0.68   0.498    -.0872834    .1793952
   mean_strength_bipartisanship |   1.134397   1.280575     0.89   0.376    -1.375484    3.644278
                 sendersalience |   .1552348   .3570349     0.43   0.664    -.5445408    .8550104
 sender_leadershipchange_lst6mo |  -.8776737   .6102377    -1.44   0.150    -2.073718    .3183703
             log_NYT_above_mean |  -.4877098   .2594524    -1.88   0.060    -.9962271    .0208075
    target_log_gdppercap_lagged |  -.3977931    .107517    -3.70   0.000    -.6085225   -.1870637
           target_polyarchy_t_1 |  -.9283503   .5956052    -1.56   0.119    -2.095715    .2390145
target_leadershipchng_lggd_lst6 |   .8333712   .3619392     2.30   0.021     .1239835    1.542759
     idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged |   .5650254   .1555996     3.63   0.000     .2600558     .869995
               log_trade_lagged |   .1830594   .0560545     3.27   0.001     .0731947    .2929241
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. *Look at sender capitulation
. stset duration_month, id(idnum) failure(status == 2)

                id:  idnum
     failure event:  status == 2
obs. time interval:  (duration_month[_n-1], duration_month]
 exit on or before:  failure

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  total observations
        0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  observations remaining, representing
      209  subjects
       37  failures in single-failure-per-subject data
     9883  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                              at risk from t =         0
                                   earliest observed entry t =         0
                                        last observed exit t =       347

. stcox pres_party_power_cong sender_approval_ratings cong_oversight sender_unemployment_perc_lagged  mean_strength_bipartisanship sendersalience sender_leadershipchange_lst6mo log_NYT_above_mean target_log_gdppercap_lagged  target_polyarchy_t_1 target
> _leadershipchng_lggd_lst6 idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged log_trade_lagged, efron nohr vce(cluster target)

         failure _d:  status == 2
   analysis time _t:  duration_month
                 id:  idnum

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -154.05587
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -134.54026
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -131.89757
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood =  -131.7511
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -131.70588
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -131.68931
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -131.68322
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -131.68099
Iteration 8:   log pseudolikelihood = -131.68016
Iteration 9:   log pseudolikelihood = -131.67986
Iteration 10:  log pseudolikelihood = -131.67975
Iteration 11:  log pseudolikelihood = -131.67971
Iteration 12:  log pseudolikelihood = -131.67969
Iteration 13:  log pseudolikelihood = -131.67969
Iteration 14:  log pseudolikelihood = -131.67969
Iteration 15:  log pseudolikelihood = -131.67968
Iteration 16:  log pseudolikelihood = -131.67968
Iteration 17:  log pseudolikelihood = -131.67968
Iteration 18:  log pseudolikelihood = -131.67968
Iteration 19:  log pseudolikelihood = -131.67968
Iteration 20:  log pseudolikelihood = -131.67968
Iteration 21:  log pseudolikelihood = -131.67968
Iteration 22:  log pseudolikelihood = -131.67968
Iteration 23:  log pseudolikelihood = -131.67968
Iteration 24:  log pseudolikelihood = -131.67968
Iteration 25:  log pseudolikelihood = -131.67968
Iteration 26:  log pseudolikelihood = -131.67968
Iteration 27:  log pseudolikelihood = -131.67968
Iteration 28:  log pseudolikelihood = -131.67968
Iteration 29:  log pseudolikelihood = -131.67968
Iteration 30:  log pseudolikelihood = -131.67968
Iteration 31:  log pseudolikelihood = -131.67968
Iteration 32:  log pseudolikelihood = -131.67968
Iteration 33:  log pseudolikelihood = -131.67968
Iteration 34:  log pseudolikelihood = -131.67968
Iteration 35:  log pseudolikelihood = -131.67968
Iteration 36:  log pseudolikelihood = -131.67968
Iteration 37:  log pseudolikelihood = -131.67968
Iteration 38:  log pseudolikelihood = -131.67968
Iteration 39:  log pseudolikelihood = -131.67968
Iteration 40:  log pseudolikelihood = -131.67968
Iteration 41:  log pseudolikelihood = -131.67968
Iteration 42:  log pseudolikelihood = -131.67968
Iteration 43:  log pseudolikelihood = -131.67968
Iteration 44:  log pseudolikelihood = -131.67968
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -131.67968
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -131.67968

Cox regression -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          203                Number of obs   =      9608
No. of failures      =           35
Time at risk         =         9608
                                                   Wald chi2(12)   =     40.20
Log pseudolikelihood =   -131.67968                Prob > chi2     =    0.0001

                                                   (Std. Err. adjusted for 98 clusters in target)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |               Robust
                             _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          pres_party_power_cong |   .0292701   .0209391     1.40   0.162    -.0117698    .0703099
        sender_approval_ratings |   3.676536   2.299537     1.60   0.110    -.8304746    8.183546
                 cong_oversight |  -1.124495   .5806089    -1.94   0.053    -2.262468    .0134772
sender_unemployment_perc_lagged |  -.2957007   .1602912    -1.84   0.065    -.6098658    .0184643
   mean_strength_bipartisanship |  -4.678029   2.288729    -2.04   0.041    -9.163855   -.1922028
                 sendersalience |  -.4341968   .5466495    -0.79   0.427     -1.50561    .6372165
 sender_leadershipchange_lst6mo |  -45.31873          .        .       .            .           .
             log_NYT_above_mean |   1.021538   .4641108     2.20   0.028     .1118971    1.931178
    target_log_gdppercap_lagged |  -.2469732   .1888036    -1.31   0.191    -.6170214     .123075
           target_polyarchy_t_1 |   3.523694   1.036496     3.40   0.001     1.492199    5.555188
target_leadershipchng_lggd_lst6 |   .7967992   .5179268     1.54   0.124    -.2183187    1.811917
     idealpoint_dist_abs_lagged |  -.0853038   .3300483    -0.26   0.796    -.7321866     .561579
               log_trade_lagged |  -.0263155   .0871421    -0.30   0.763    -.1971109      .14448
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *Table XII Appendix: Na�ve model
. set more off 

. stset duration_month, id(idnum) failure(termination_executive)

                id:  idnum
     failure event:  termination_executive != 0 & termination_executive < .
obs. time interval:  (duration_month[_n-1], duration_month]
 exit on or before:  failure

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  total observations
        0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  observations remaining, representing
      209  subjects
      125  failures in single-failure-per-subject data
     9883  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                              at risk from t =         0
                                   earliest observed entry t =         0
                                        last observed exit t =       347

. stcox pres_party_power_cong sender_approval_ratings cong_oversight, efron nohr vce(cluster target)

         failure _d:  termination_executive
   analysis time _t:  duration_month
                 id:  idnum

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -556.53504
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -546.88712
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -546.61506
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -546.61404
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -546.61404

Cox regression -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          209                Number of obs   =      9883
No. of failures      =          125
Time at risk         =         9883
                                                   Wald chi2(3)    =     18.52
Log pseudolikelihood =   -546.61404                Prob > chi2     =    0.0003

                                          (Std. Err. adjusted for 103 clusters in target)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                        |               Robust
                     _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pres_party_power_cong |    .026414   .0089142     2.96   0.003     .0089426    .0438854
sender_approval_ratings |   1.094595   .9994551     1.10   0.273    -.8643011    3.053491
         cong_oversight |  -.8536696   .2590721    -3.30   0.001    -1.361442   -.3458977
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. *Look at partial acquiesence
. stset duration_month, id(idnum) failure(status == 1)

                id:  idnum
     failure event:  status == 1
obs. time interval:  (duration_month[_n-1], duration_month]
 exit on or before:  failure

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  total observations
        0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  observations remaining, representing
      209  subjects
       88  failures in single-failure-per-subject data
     9883  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                              at risk from t =         0
                                   earliest observed entry t =         0
                                        last observed exit t =       347

. stcox pres_party_power_cong sender_approval_ratings cong_oversight, efron nohr vce(cluster target)

         failure _d:  status == 1
   analysis time _t:  duration_month
                 id:  idnum

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =  -393.4024
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -387.51494
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -387.39124
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -387.39101
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -387.39101

Cox regression -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          209                Number of obs   =      9883
No. of failures      =           88
Time at risk         =         9883
                                                   Wald chi2(3)    =      9.39
Log pseudolikelihood =   -387.39101                Prob > chi2     =    0.0245

                                          (Std. Err. adjusted for 103 clusters in target)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                        |               Robust
                     _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pres_party_power_cong |   .0244518   .0114699     2.13   0.033     .0019712    .0469324
sender_approval_ratings |    1.64445   1.207103     1.36   0.173    -.7214291    4.010329
         cong_oversight |  -.7416283   .3266644    -2.27   0.023    -1.381879   -.1013779
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. *Look at sender capitulation
. stset duration_month, id(idnum) failure(status == 2)

                id:  idnum
     failure event:  status == 2
obs. time interval:  (duration_month[_n-1], duration_month]
 exit on or before:  failure

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  total observations
        0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9883  observations remaining, representing
      209  subjects
       37  failures in single-failure-per-subject data
     9883  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                              at risk from t =         0
                                   earliest observed entry t =         0
                                        last observed exit t =       347

. stcox pres_party_power_cong sender_approval_ratings cong_oversight, efron nohr vce(cluster target)

         failure _d:  status == 2
   analysis time _t:  duration_month
                 id:  idnum

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =  -163.6189
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -159.35545
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood =  -159.1385
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -159.13495
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -159.13495
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -159.13495

Cox regression -- Efron method for ties

No. of subjects      =          209                Number of obs   =      9883
No. of failures      =           37
Time at risk         =         9883
                                                   Wald chi2(3)    =     10.88
Log pseudolikelihood =   -159.13495                Prob > chi2     =    0.0124

                                          (Std. Err. adjusted for 103 clusters in target)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                        |               Robust
                     _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pres_party_power_cong |   .0303273   .0126008     2.41   0.016     .0056301    .0550245
sender_approval_ratings |  -.0566421   2.178544    -0.03   0.979     -4.32651    4.213226
         cong_oversight |  -1.187566   .5411037    -2.19   0.028     -2.24811   -.1270224
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. log close
      name:  <unnamed>
       log:  /Users/hanaattia/Dropbox/Mac (2)/Desktop/PaperII_termination/FPA/Empirics/Replication/FPA_replication.log
  log type:  text
 closed on:   1 Apr 2025, 23:06:37
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
